In the afternoon, I suddenly ran into an old friend I hadn't seen in a long time. We had a great chat, sharing our experiences in the cryptocurrency world over the past few years, each with our own reflections. Although this old friend hasn't been active in the crypto space since a major loss, she has been keeping an eye on things. She mentioned that the articles from the Hunter have become much less emotional compared to a few years ago. I reflected on this myself; while the current articles may seem monotonous and dull, they are more rational and objective. Perhaps it is the lack of vibrant language and emotional stances that allows for a more objective and rational view of the market.
In the past, the Hunter's analyses were more about pleasing oneself, enjoying the feeling of controlling the market. However, this was merely fleeting. Once or twice, I got lucky and hit the bottom of a bull market, mistaking the bull market for my own achievement. In reality, whether I was bullish or bearish, the bull and bear cycles never changed. I just happened to be on that ride. Excessive confidence led to overinflation, making me think I could perfectly grasp this market. But the market is not something we can control. What seems like a gift from fate is actually a price that has already been marked in secret. One should enjoy life to the fullest when things are going well, as fortunes can come and go.
Now, the Hunter writes analyses that only make assumptions and then seeks to validate them. Although it may seem dull to everyone, aren't we reading these articles to view the market objectively and rationally? Why bring in too many emotional viewpoints? People follow the Hunter primarily to find a reliable method of operation to make money, so why care if the article's content is passionate?
Sorry for taking up your time with my own reflections; now let's return to the main content.
Yesterday, following the Hunter's analysis of subsequent fluctuations, we shorted at 62300 after a rebound faced resistance and fell, just as expected. Indeed, the rebound at 62300 initiated a decline. There will be fluctuations around 60000, so we took a long position near 60000, and the market also rebounded as expected from around 60000. The current price is hovering around 61500.
At this point, we can preliminarily confirm yesterday's hypothesis: the rebound at 60000 is merely a corrective adjustment in the process of this decline, correcting the excessive drop and adjusting the pace of the decline.
Following this rhythm, the market is set to start testing the breakdown of the 60000 integer level today or tomorrow, initiating the second wave of continued decline.
However, it is important to note that after Bitcoin's second test of 60000 in the early hours today, a rebound occurred again, and this rebound was quite strong, with a short-term increase of 1500 points.
Here, we need to make a key distinction. When we first touched 60000 and rebounded to 62300 yesterday, the increase was larger, and the Hunter was not worried at all. However, today, as we rebound again from 60000, the increase is not as large as yesterday's, but it reveals a preliminary possibility of forming a bottom. Even if this probability is small, and even if this bottoming contradicts the Hunter's bearish outlook, we must consider it within our operational scope.
Currently, the hourly chart has touched the 60000 integer level again and rebounded, suggesting the formation of a W double bottom. Although this pattern is only at the hourly level and has not yet affected the larger cycle, trend changes often start from smaller levels leading to larger cycle transformations.
Through the hourly chart, we can clearly see that if the market is to rise subsequently, two conditions need to be met.
Condition 1: Re-test 60000 to form a double bottom.
Condition 2: Break through the neckline resistance of the W double bottom rebound at 61500.
Incorporating these two conditions into the market, the preliminary operational logic emerges.
Subsequent market hypothesis: A short-term re-test of the 60000 integer level today will initiate a rebound.
Forming a standard W double bottom rebound (with signs of a potential false breakout)
The rebound breaks through 61500 (clearing the false breakout suspicion) while 62300 becomes a position for a potential short squeeze.
Combining the hypothesis with today's operational points:
Short near 61000 (with a 200-point range), stop loss at 61500, target at 59500-59000.
Continue holding long-term shorts. Wait for a break below 58000 to add the final position.
Long-term trend positions are only disclosed in the internal core group. If interested, message me. The complete planning and validation have been finished. The last time we validated from May, we initiated the 69000 trend in June, chasing the top down to 53000-50000, nearly a 20000-point range. This was publicly shared for free across the network, including real-time updates during live broadcasts. However, people do not cherish free things, and very few can persist. This time, only collaboration will allow entry. The community team will control the rhythm throughout, and the Hunter's grasp of the trend needs no explanation; history has proven it countless times.
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