Fourth Quarter and 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook
For the upcoming market (fourth quarter and 2025), we remain optimistic based on the following considerations:
1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
Event Overview: On September 18, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact Analysis: In the medium to long term, interest rate cuts are favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. If the U.S. economy can achieve a "soft landing," avoiding a severe recession and controlling inflation, the rate cuts will stimulate economic activity and drive investors towards high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Time Expectation: The market reflects that patience is needed for a few months, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will reach a 2% interest rate target by 2025. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets often occur during relatively low interest rate periods.
2. U.S. Presidential Election
Event Overview: With just over a month until the U.S. presidential election, both Trump and Harris have expressed support for cryptocurrencies.
Impact Analysis: Elections typically trigger volatility in financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. The statements from both candidates are positive for the crypto market but will only affect short-term trends. Long-term trends are more influenced by macroeconomic patterns.
Future Outlook: Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold, with significant growth potential in the long term. Regulatory policies post-election may cause short-term fluctuations, but they cannot ultimately hinder Bitcoin's development.
3. Global Liquidity
Focus: In addition to U.S. dollar liquidity, attention should also be paid to China's economic stimulus policies.
Current Analysis: China continues to announce economic stimulus plans, driving the stock market up. In the short term, funds are primarily flowing into the stock market, with limited inflow into the crypto market.
Future Trends: Capital seeks profit, and next year (2025), some funds may flow directly or indirectly into the crypto market. An increase in M2 money supply is a potential positive for Bitcoin. The repayment of $16 billion in debts by FTX may lead to a capital return to the crypto market, generating a positive impact.
4. Summary
Current Stage: The crypto market is in a phase of uncertainty, facing selling pressure, geopolitical issues, and economic indicators. The short-term trend is primarily sideways, making it difficult to see strong upward catalysts.
Medium to Long Term: The market is building momentum, with important catalysts yet to emerge. The fourth quarter is a transitional period, and patience is required until 2025 to see new directions and possibilities.
Future Outlook: After 2025, Bitcoin may reach new historical highs.
BTC
Yesterday's report suggested a short position near 62300, which was spot on! It has already touched 60000-59500! There is still room below, with a probability of reaching 58300-57500; at that time, pay attention to buying opportunities at this level!
ETH
The rebound is weak, not even touching 2530! Currently, it has found temporary support around 2370-2380, with a rebound to 2460-2480 unlikely. There is still room below, waiting for the price to enter 2330-2280 to observe buying opportunities.
SOL
The price has reached around 140 as expected, finding temporary support, but if it cannot rebound above 146-148, continue to wait for buying opportunities near 136!
The information and data involved in this content are sourced from publicly available materials, striving for accuracy and reliability, but no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and any investment based on it is at your own risk!
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