Spring breeze brings joy, and the horse's hooves are swift; in a day, I tread through the flowers of Chang'an. The weather this National Day is truly nice, but unfortunately, the working-class hunter is still on overtime. I hope everyone enjoys this holiday.
Last night, Bitcoin continued to accelerate its decline, reaching a low near the 60000 mark. For me, this is indeed refreshing because after the first failed attempt to short at 65000 last week, I reopened a bearish trend at 64000 yesterday afternoon. So far, it seems I have successfully entered the market. Today's article will continue to provide everyone with follow-up operational strategies.
In yesterday's article, including when I designed this round of bearish positions for everyone, I mentioned a key level of 62300. A drop below this level would allow for greater extension of the bearish trend. Currently, Bitcoin's movement has first accelerated down to the 60000 mark, and then it began to rebound quickly, with prices approaching the 62000 line.
From the trajectory of the market, we can derive two pieces of information.
- A drop below 62300 opens up greater downward space.
- A strong rebound near the 60000 mark.
Summary: A drop below 62300 confirms that the downward space has opened up, while the strong rebound at 60000 proves that this level acts as a strong resistance point during the decline. Whether 60000 is the starting point for a new upward trend or merely a rebound after yesterday's overselling still needs further exploration and a final breakthrough. We will continue to use 62300 as the key signal.
Since the market opened up the downward space from the drop below 62300, to terminate the downward trend, the market must rebound and stabilize above 62300. This level then becomes the defensive position for the bears.
Calculating from the recent high of 66500, the short-term decline has exceeded 6000 points, and the bears have shown sufficient strength. However, a time window is also needed for adjustment. After all, whether in a one-sided rise or fall, trends do not happen overnight; they are often accompanied by multiple adjustments. Even if a trend reversal occurs, it requires time to reconstruct a new pattern.
From the current overall rhythm of the market, the bearish trend has not been broken. The short-term rebound can only be defined as a corrective adjustment in the downward process. Regardless of whether 60000 is a temporary bottom support, the subsequent market, whether it reverses upward or continues to decline, will require a second test of this level.
Thus, the preliminary range has emerged: 62300-60000.
Daily market operations:
Short near 62000 (within 200 points up or down), stop loss at 62500, take profit at 60500-60300.
Once again, near 60000, go long, stop loss at 59500, target 61000-61500.
Long-term follow-up operations: Hold the short position from 64000, add to the short if 62300 is broken, with a stop loss at 63000.
Regarding future views:
The hunter personally believes that the flash crash at the opening of this week is not merely a trap for shorts but the beginning of a new round of declines. The fundamental reasons have been introduced in my previous two articles. The perfect upward structure, perfect upward sentiment, and perfect positive news should have propelled the market into a one-sided rise after Bitcoin broke through 65000. The reality is that the market not only failed to initiate a one-sided rise but instead plummeted. Therefore, the upward cycle has ended, and the current market is in a new downward cycle, having only taken the first step. After adjustments, it will proceed to the second round of declines.
If there is no second round of declines, then the current area of 60000-62300 will also undergo a new oscillation cycle. In this area, both long and short positions can be played, with clear support and resistance. If aligned with the bearish trend, the operational strategy will primarily focus on short positions, with long positions as a supplement, until a breakout occurs.
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