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After a slight rebound last night, Bitcoin has once again declined this morning, currently reaching a low of around 62800. The short-term trend continues to show a 15-minute level downtrend. During the day, there was a 15-minute level rebound, and there should be another 15-minute level decline tonight towards 62800 or lower.

After the 15-minute downtrend completes, we can expect a second 1-hour level rebound in the ongoing 4-hour downtrend tomorrow. After the rebound, there should still be a third 1-hour downtrend. Once the overall structure of this 4-hour downtrend is completed, we will need to buy the dip and invest in spot trading again. If the market moves smoothly in the future, this pullback will be the last low entry opportunity before a new historical high. If it does not go smoothly, there will be a significant pullback later. Regardless, this pullback should be followed by buying, and based on the subsequent rebound, we can decide whether to hold long or take a profit in between.

In our trading process, we often encounter the issue of market extension, where we judge that a certain position should stabilize, but the actual price continues to decline. Or we judge that a certain position should reach resistance and pull back, but the actual price continues to make higher highs. In such cases, having a stop-loss is definitely necessary. Additionally, if you have been stopped out in 2-3 consecutive trades, it indicates that there is still some space for a short-term move either down or up, and you need to step back and observe rather than rush to continue trading.

We will share similar experiences in detail in the trading training course after the 9th.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be used as a reference.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, the current first 1-hour downtrend should still be missing a sub-level down. Pay attention to around 62000 below, and tomorrow there should be a second 1-hour level rebound, focusing on around 65000 for the rebound. After that, there should normally be a third 1-hour downtrend, checking if it retraces to around 61000. The overall 4-hour downtrend should still take a few days, so be patient and wait for the structure to play out.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the downtrend indicated by the white arrow in the above chart started from 66076 early yesterday morning, marking a departure from a central range. This 15-minute downtrend was expected to conclude last night, but it actually extended today, reaching a low of around 62800. After that, there was a 15-minute level rebound during the day, but the rebound strength was not significant, indicating that there should be a 15-minute level downtrend of the central three sells tonight. Currently, it has reached 62500, and the short-term should be nearing completion. If it does not drop below 62000 overnight, we can look for a 1-hour rebound tomorrow.

ETH

For Ethereum at the 15-minute level, the trend is slightly stronger than Bitcoin. Focus on the strength of this 15-minute level pullback tonight, expecting it to retrace to around 2550 or 2530. Tomorrow, there should also be a 1-hour level rebound, targeting whether it can reach 2680.

After the 1-hour level rebound completes, there will still be a third 1-hour downtrend, with the overall 4-hour downtrend focusing on around 2450-2500.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: The direction is down, theoretically around 49000 should be about right. Whether it has ended still needs observation, but the probability of starting a weekly rebound is increasing.

Daily Level: The direction is up, and in the short term, we should continue to look at the 67000-70000 range.

4-Hour Level: The direction is down, looking at a 4-hour level pullback, with an initial target around 61000.

1-Hour Level: The direction is up, and the current 1-hour level pullback is expected to be nearing completion, with a short-term focus on a 1-hour level rebound.

15-Minute Level: The direction is up, and the current 15-minute level pullback should stabilize around 62000.

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The article is time-sensitive, please pay attention to risks. The views expressed are personal suggestions and for reference only!

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