Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | jk

In the context of the current recovery in the cryptocurrency market, the overall market trend shows strong signs of resurgence. The sharp increase in stablecoin issuance, significant improvement in market liquidity, and Bitcoin's price breaking through $65,000 are signals that have led many institutions to be optimistic about future trends. Currently, the number of institutions that are bullish far exceeds those that are bearish, reflecting the optimistic attitude of market participants towards crypto assets. This article summarizes institutional views on market recovery since July 25 (the recent two months).

Bullish: Mainstream institutional views mainly from macro signals

Arthur Hayes: Global monetary easing trends will drive the crypto market up

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed the trend of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and their impact on the economy. He believes that the Federal Reserve typically continues to cut rates in the face of high volatility until rates approach 0%. Rate cuts will promote bank credit growth, and the government will continue to borrow to gain public support. The European Central Bank will also respond to economic downturns by lowering interest rates, and governments will push banks to provide more loans to local businesses to create jobs and rebuild infrastructure.

As the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the dollar may weaken, allowing China to increase credit while stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. The People's Bank of China has begun to cut rates, signaling a loosening of monetary policy. Other major economies are also lowering interest rates, easing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates. Global economies are responding to volatility by lowering the cost of money and increasing the money supply. Hayes advises investors holding cryptocurrencies to remain calm and look forward to an increase in their fiat value.

10x Research: Firmly bullish, expecting Bitcoin to reach $70,000 in the next two weeks and set a new high by the end of October

In its latest report, 10X Research pointed out that the sharp increase in stablecoin issuance is expected to add nearly $10 billion in liquidity in the coming weeks, far exceeding the liquidity from Bitcoin ETFs. Recently, the inflow of Circle's stablecoin USDC reached 40%, indicating an increase in allocations by large market participants, possibly related to the recovery of DeFi activities. Year-to-date, the total inflow of stablecoins has reached $35 billion, bringing the total value of circulating stablecoins to $160 billion.

The report also mentioned that after the July FOMC meeting, U.S. bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.0%, triggering a revival in DeFi activities. Aave's lending platform saw monthly fees soar to $43 million in August. Although activity slowed in September, it may rebound after the Federal Reserve cuts rates.

With Bitcoin breaking through $65,000, 10X Research expects it to quickly rise to $70,000 and possibly set a new all-time high in the short term. Founder Markus Thielen stated that the surge in stablecoin minting has injected liquidity into the market, and there is a high likelihood of a strong market rally in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the cryptocurrency space may soon experience more FOMO.

CryptoQuant: Funding rates indicate increased bullish sentiment among futures traders

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the 30-day moving average of funding rates has shown a positive shift, indicating increased bullish sentiment among futures traders. Moreno pointed out that this upward trend follows a long-term decline, suggesting that market participants may be turning more optimistic. Coinglass data shows that since the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 18, the weighted funding rate for Ethereum's open interest has been on a positive trend, currently at 0.0089%.

At the same time, increased demand in the U.S. market has driven Bitcoin up to $65,000, with the Bitcoin premium on the Coinbase platform reaching its highest level in two weeks.

MN Trading: Despite losing over 50%, still bullish on altcoins; ETF fund inflow trend will continue, Asia may drive the bull market

Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, stated: “There has been a significant inflow of funds into Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs. I believe this trend will continue, as both of these blue-chip assets are the best bets against the potential failure of the dollar. Meanwhile, China is pushing the market forward. Perhaps Asia will provide the momentum for the bull market.”

He also mentioned: “People have been mocking my moves in the altcoin portfolio, yes, I have lost over 50%. However, if my fundamental theory is correct, I can accept a drop of more than 50%, and if this happens within 12-18 months, my portfolio will at least have a 10x return. The last round, which is the third cycle, will have a larger AUM before making more and safer bets, which naturally results in lower investment returns. Better times are ahead.”

Matrixport: Bitcoin price may see a significant rebound in early October

Matrixport released a report stating that Bitcoin is likely to rebound by the end of the year, surprising many market participants. Although Bitcoin has been consolidating since reaching an all-time high in March 2024, the year-to-date return has also reached +49%, comparable to the historically predicted +47% return. Based on Bitcoin's performance over the past decade, a significant price rebound may occur in early October, making this an exciting time for participants in the crypto asset space. Meanwhile, a slight rebound in Ethereum miner fees suggests that the summer consolidation phase may be coming to an end. To assess the sustainability of the rebound momentum, a deeper analysis of Ethereum's revenue and miner fee trends is needed to understand changes in market activity.

Charts released by Matrixport show that following the recent Federal Reserve meeting, Ethereum's gas fees have risen, indicating a significant increase in network activity, which may suggest that the cryptocurrency market is undergoing important changes. Despite facing negative news, the ETH price has still rebounded. Currently, the crypto market may be experiencing a high beta, high volatility upward trend, and existing trends indicate that this momentum is likely to continue into the fourth quarter.

Another chart states that although Bitcoin has inherent volatility, its funding rate has returned to near zero levels, indicating that even with the recent Bitcoin rebound, the futures trading market's long positions are not heavily weighted. This provides an opportunity for traders to increase long positions, which may further push prices higher. However, the low funding rate also suggests that the recent rise may have been driven by spot buying, which tends to be more strategic and long-term rather than speculative futures trading. Overall, this is a positive signal, indicating that the market is not over-leveraged, and there is still potential for future price increases.

QCP Capital: Central bank easing cycles will drive crypto prices up

QCP Capital stated that in the absence of U.S. macro catalysts, BTC has been oscillating between $62,000 and $64,000. Key macro events to watch today include U.S. GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. The market will closely monitor Powell's remarks to see if there are any changes in sentiment following last Thursday's FOMC press conference, where further easing may have been hinted. Last night, U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, marking the second time this week she has committed to making the U.S. a leading force in “artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and blockchain.” She also reaffirmed the inclusion of “digital assets” in her economic plan. With two U.S. presidential candidates committing to support cryptocurrencies, whichever candidate wins will be a victory for the U.S. crypto ecosystem. As central banks around the world enter easing cycles, liquidity inflows are expected to drive crypto prices up.

At the same time, in comparison, Bitcoin's increase in September exceeded 7%, marking one of the strongest September performances in history; the S&P 500 index rose 5.1% in the third quarter, the best performance for the same period since 1997. Global risk appetite is strong, and after China launched a large-scale real estate support plan, the CSI 300 index rose 9% in a single day. QCP expects that against the backdrop of global monetary easing, Bitcoin is likely to benefit from potential pullbacks in the stock market. QCP maintains a bullish mid-term outlook for Bitcoin, believing that a breakout above $70,000 could trigger further upward momentum.

Bearish: Macro data and social media data may not indicate a bull market

BitMEX Chief Growth Officer: The market is in a rebound period, but the RRR indicator may be bearish for cryptocurrencies

BitMEX Chief Growth Officer Raphael Polansky stated on X that although many are cheering for the market rebound, one of the macro indicators favored internally at BitMEX, RRP, shows signs of continued tightening liquidity this month. RRP has historically shown an inverse correlation with Bitcoin's performance. High RRP is typically bearish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Santiment: According to social media data, BTC will not reach a new high soon

Santiment stated that if investors are waiting to see Bitcoin set a new all-time high, they may need to lower their expectations. Currently, the ratio of bearish to bullish posts on social media is 1:1.8. Historically, the market has always gone against people's expectations.

Neutral: BTC has merely found a support level

CryptoQuant: The average purchase price for short-term holders of BTC is $63,000, expected to serve as current support

CryptoQuant.com recently released a market outlook analysis stating that BTC has risen over 23% in the past three weeks, from $52,500 to over $65,000. Part of this strong momentum is due to increased demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs. As a result, short-term holders are back in profit. Short-term holders are investors who have transferred Bitcoin in the past 155 days, with an average purchase price of $63,000, which is expected to provide support. Additionally, the futures market shows signs of overheating, with open interest around $19.1 billion. Since March 2024, this indicator has exceeded $18 billion six times, each time leading to a price drop, and this is the seventh occurrence. Meanwhile, the supply of Bitcoin held in spot ETFs is converting into long-term holders. While this appears bullish, such a shift typically occurs late in a bull market.

Bitfinex: BTC is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term

Bitfinex analysts stated that even if demand from spot buyers weakens, ETF fund inflows can still support BTC prices. Continued ETF inflows may boost BTC prices; however, as Bitcoin spot market purchases slow down, when prices reach $63,500, the incremental trading volume in the spot market is expected to flatten out, indicating that BTC will fluctuate within a range in the short term.

Well-known trader Eugene: Reducing some positions against the trend, strictly following the trading plan

Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media that he has reduced some positions and sold some assets, despite the huge FOMO everywhere, he is still trying to stick to the plan. Previously, he expressed his views on the bull market on September 25 on the X platform, stating: “I will not blindly crave more profits as prices rise. For me, the $65,000 to $68,000 range is a reasonable profit-taking area for early Bitcoin buyers. Many waiting funds will make their final entry at $65,000, which may also mean this is the last upward momentum. I don't think it will break the $70,000 ceiling before the U.S. elections, so I won't choose to increase my position here. If it reaches $68,000, I would prefer to liquidate and re-enter in the $60,000 range.”

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。