Weekly Market Insights: Short-term Bitcoin Holders Have Regained Profit

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18 hours ago

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  • China has launched an economic stimulus plan, coinciding with a 3.2% increase in Bitcoin prices last week, which returned to $66,524 on Friday. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.11 billion last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs also had a net inflow of $84.51 million, marking their second consecutive week of net inflows.
  • Short-term Bitcoin holders have now returned to profit, with an average holding price of $63,000.
  • Historically, October has been the strongest month for Bitcoin, with a median return rate of 27.7%.

Macroeconomic Outlook

  • U.S. durable goods orders for August indicate economic resilience; although the previous month's growth was revised to 9.8%, the August data remained unchanged, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of a 2.6% decline. Additionally, the final GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 3%, in line with market expectations.
  • However, this growth was not reflected in the core PCE price index, which rose only 0.1% in August, below the market expectation of 0.2%. Personal income and spending in August grew by 0.2%, lower than the market expectations of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
  • Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November 2024 have increased from 50% a week ago to 57%.
  • China announced its largest economic stimulus plan since 2020, which includes a 20 basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate, a 30 basis point cut in the medium-term lending rate, and a 20 to 25 basis point cut in the prime lending rate; existing mortgage rates will be reduced by 50 basis points, and the down payment ratio will decrease from 25% to 15%; a 500 billion yuan swap facility and 300 billion yuan in central bank loans at a 2.5% interest rate will be provided to commercial banks; consideration is also being given to establishing a stabilization fund, a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting 1 trillion yuan into state-owned banks, and potentially lowering rates by another 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, accompanied by various fiscal stimulus measures.

Upcoming economic calendar includes:

  • Tuesday, October 1, 1:55 AM: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting
  • Tuesday, October 1, 10:00 PM: U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI and September JOLTs job openings
  • Thursday, October 3, 10:00 PM: U.S. September ISM Services PMI
  • Friday, October 4, 8:30 PM: U.S. September Non-Farm Payroll data and unemployment rate

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

  • Japanese listed power company Remixpoint announced the purchase of crypto assets worth 750 million yen ($5.25 million).
  • Kamala Harris stated that the U.S. should lead in blockchain and technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. This is her second mention of cryptocurrency this week.
  • The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved BNY Mellon to provide crypto custody services for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
  • PayPal business accounts can now buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrencies.
  • Binance announced pre-market trading for its upcoming Launchpool project. Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao has been released after being sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Public Chains

  • The first EVM-compatible Layer 2 network on the TON network, using Arbitrum Orbit, Duck Chain, has launched its testnet.
  • Celo's Alfajores testnet has successfully upgraded the network from a Layer 1 to an Ethereum Layer 2 network, marking an important milestone before the mainnet migration, with the mainnet migration date yet to be determined.
  • The Celestia Foundation has raised $100 million, led by Bain Capital Crypto. It is reported that the funds were raised through OTC sales of TIA tokens at a price of 3 dollars each, with one-third of the tokens set to unlock on October 31.
  • The Avalanche Foundation has launched a $40 million grant program Retro9000 aimed at supporting developers building subnet chains and developer tools on the Avalanche9000 testnet.
  • Babylon has partnered with Ankr's RaaS solution Asphere to seamlessly launch a Bitcoin Layer 2 network.

Dapps

  • The exotic derivatives protocol Cega Finance has launched the Vault Token Market (VTM), creating a market for liquidity providers to buy and sell their vault tokens instantly.
  • Ethena has launched UStb, a yield-bearing stablecoin fully backed by BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL. If a negative funding rate occurs, USDe will be allocated to UStb.
  • Trader Joe has rebranded to Let's F***ing Joe (LFJ). LFJ has also partnered with Doppel, a cybersecurity company aimed at detecting and combating counterfeit domains and social media impersonation.
  • The Metaplex Foundation has launched a decentralized indexing and data availability network Metaplex Aura Network to extend Solana and the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM).
  • Router Protocol has announced that it will use 100% of its net revenue from Nitro (its cross-chain bridging platform) to buy back and burn ROUTE.
  • Dolomite has integrated Ondo's USDY, allowing token holders to borrow other assets by collateralizing their USDY.
  • Aevo has initiated a buyback program and bought back 1 million AEVO on September 26.
  • Aave V3 has officially launched on the zkSync Era mainnet.
  • Amulet Finance has officially launched on the mainnet, introducing liquid staking and lending markets for ATOM.
  • LayerZero has been integrated into Bitlayer.

Governance/Project Updates

  • The next FTX court hearing will be held on October 7.
  • The SVM Layer-2 project Eclipse on Ethereum is set to launch in October.
  • According to Andre Cronje, Sonic is expected to launch in December 2024.

Token Unlocks

  • DYDX tokens will unlock on October 1, representing 4.92% of the total token supply.
  • SUI tokens will unlock on October 3, representing 3.13% of the total token supply.
  • IMX tokens will unlock on October 5, representing 2.03% of the total token supply.
  • IO tokens will unlock on October 12, representing 1.12% of the total token supply.
  • APT tokens will unlock on October 13, representing 2.26% of the total token supply.

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