朱光耀: Indeed, the current development of the digital economy can be said to be leading the overall trend and direction of global development. Since the beginning of this year, with the breakthrough of technologies such as artificial intelligence, I believe we have entered the fourth industrial revolution, or the fourth industrial revolution has already begun. This time, it is true that China is different from the past three industrial revolutions. We are at the forefront, or it can be said that the United States and China are currently leading the development of the digital economy. Of course, we must acknowledge the gap between China and the United States. In the aspect of going from 0 to 1, the United States is indeed playing a leading role. However, China has the largest application scenarios for the digital economy, and in some innovative areas, talent cultivation, and technical expertise, we have indeed accumulated considerable strength.
As you can see, the recent report on the digital economy and productivity competition in the European Union, chaired by former ECB President Draghi, explicitly stated that there is a gap between the United States and China. Therefore, Europe must increase substantial investments to catch up. However, I believe that the overall trend of the development of the digital economy in the next ten years should be the mature progress of the fourth industrial revolution. When it comes to infrastructure, at the front end, we all use our mobile phones and platforms. These are the front end. However, the crucial infrastructure at the back end is the data center and the fiber optic cables that ensure network operation. In the context of globalization, currently, over 99% of cross-continental data is transmitted through undersea fiber optic cables. However, in this regard, the United States has 3 out of the top 20 supercomputing centers globally, while Europe and Japan have none. Therefore, we are indeed in the forefront, truly embracing the new development concept. Under the guidance of the innovation theory of "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing," we have achieved tremendous success since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. However, the challenge we are facing now is that in 2020, the United States passed the "Clean Network Plan," which was initiated under the Trump administration and is still being implemented. A key area is the undersea fiber optic cables. Currently, the United States is making every effort to prevent American companies from cooperating with China. At the same time, Chinese companies have tremendous engineering and construction capabilities. However, they are being obstructed in every possible way. The United Nations has clear data that currently, 49% of global data exchange is in the United States, 24% in Europe, and 22% in East Asia, with China accounting for 9%. However, if the cross-continental network is disrupted, leading to the decoupling of the United States and China, the United States would suffer a reduction of 12%, from 49% to 37%, while China's share would decrease from 9% to 7%. Both sides would suffer significant losses. The most dangerous aspect of this is that in the next ten years, the fourth industrial revolution driven by artificial intelligence, affected by this decoupling, would result in two parallel markets, two parallel supply chains, and the International Monetary Fund estimates a loss of 7%-12% of the global economic total, which is 70 trillion to 120 trillion. As I mentioned earlier, the global economic total was 105 trillion last year. Such a huge economic loss. Therefore, no single country can bear it alone, and its danger is extremely great. Therefore, we must return to the process of globalization and closely communicate major economic policies among major economies.
Another aspect is the special asset brought about by the digital economy, which I mentioned earlier is infrastructure. Now, a special asset of the digital economy is cryptocurrency. In the past decade, the United States has consistently believed that:
It has a huge destructive impact on international anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing.
It has a huge impact on the market because its value fluctuates dramatically, causing significant shocks to the international financial market.
However, there has been a significant evolution in US policy this year. On the one hand, the Republican Party has explicitly included the development of cryptocurrency in its party platform. At the same time, it also explicitly stated that it aims to exclude China. Trump openly stated during his campaign that we must embrace cryptocurrency and deny that China is going to replace us. His vice presidential candidate, Pence, is a venture capitalist and has significant cryptocurrency assets. As for the executive branch, the Biden administration, Trump said that on my first day in office, I will dismiss the current chairman of the SEC, which is currently restricting the development of digital currency in the United States. However, in January of this year, the SEC approved the listing of 11 Bitcoin ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq Stock Market, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This marks the US government's recognition of the legitimacy of Bitcoin. In July, the second one, Ethereum, was listed. Therefore, even the current SEC and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which Trump accused of imposing various policy restrictions on the development of Bitcoin, and the entire Biden administration's attitude, have fundamentally changed. In emerging market countries, in the BRICS countries, in September of this year, Russian President Putin officially approved cryptocurrency, and in fact, South Africa, Brazil, and India had already been involved in it before. Therefore, if we talk about the development of digital currency, cryptocurrency indeed has a negative impact, and we must fully recognize its risks and the harm it poses to the capital market. However, we must study the latest changes and policy adjustments internationally, especially the impact of the policies of the two major parties in the United States, because it is a crucial aspect for the overall development of the digital economy. Thank you!
Ju Jiandong: Thank you, Minister Zhu. If we recall before 2015, China's digital currency technology was leading the world, at that time it was called mining. Now, nine years have passed, how much do you think we are lagging behind?
Zhu Guangyao: Currently, it is closely related to the development of chips, because if you don't use it, what were we worried about before? One is what I just mentioned, which was repeatedly emphasized by the United States and us at the G20, that is, the severe impact on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, does it exist? Yes. But how can it be resolved in terms of regulation? It should be resolvable. Our current gap is that if you don't participate, even though there are underground channels for transactions, you do not have the production capacity because it is prohibited by law. Therefore, we need to study new issues, which is a key point in the communique of the Central Political Bureau meeting, to face and discuss problems and find solutions.
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