Daily Sharing
Bitcoin surged to around 66500 last night, starting from 52550, and the rebound on the 4-hour level has entered the target area as expected. If it cannot accelerate the surge, a 4-hour level pullback is likely to occur.
Regarding this 4-hour level rebound, we have been observing as it progresses. Initially, after the rebound from 52550 to around 57000, we were looking at a 4-hour level rebound to around 61000-62000, rather than aiming too high at once. The obvious short-term gains were mainly between 56000 and 61500, a $5500 range. After Bitcoin broke through 63000, our target changed to around 65000 or 66500. The main obtainable range in between was 62800-64800, a $2000 range.
The biggest difference between contract trading and spot trading is that the wave operations in contract trading are more pronounced. In contract trading, because leverage is involved, it means that on the basis of your existing funds, you have amplified your profits several times or even dozens of times. When you make a profit, your profits increase significantly, but when you incur losses, you will lose more, and even face liquidation. Therefore, it's difficult to say that holding onto a long position is the best strategy.
In the first half of the year, many people experienced such complex market conditions. How many people went long near 56000, 60000, with very good entry positions, hoping to reach 80000 or 90000, but ended up with losses. How many people went short near 68000, 70000, hoping to reach 40000, 44000, but ended up failing with just a slight rebound.
Therefore, in contract trading, it is important to take profits decisively when necessary. Even if you miss out on a small segment after taking profits, it doesn't really matter. Some people actually don't understand this and use spot trading thinking to play contracts, always thinking that going long at 63000 means they must hold on until it reaches 70000 or 80000. As a result, a mid-way pullback turns profits into losses, and then they are at a loss.
Regarding some issues in contract trading, I will provide detailed explanations during the trading training course on October 9th. Many of us use the mindset for spot trading to play contracts, and use the mindset for playing contracts to play spot trading. As a result, contract positions often change from profits to losses, while spot positions often take a small profit and exit, missing out on the main uptrend. So, for those who want to learn, please sign up for the training course as soon as possible, and we can learn together in the live session. We can discuss and share experiences and ideas during the breaks. The goal is to maximize profits in the new uptrend together.
To sign up for the course, please private message me or leave a comment in the area below:
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.
1H:
On the 1-hour level, there is a high possibility of a 1-hour level pullback. If the pullback does not fall below 64000, there may be another 1-hour level rebound to around 67000-68000. If the 1-hour level pullback falls below 64000, then it is very likely that a short-term 4-hour level pullback is imminent, with a target around 61000-62000. After the pullback, continue to look for a surge towards 70000.
The overall rebound on the daily level has not ended, but in the short term, it is necessary to be cautious about the 4-hour level pullback. If the pullback occurs, continue to go long.
15M:
On the 15-minute level, there is currently a 15-minute level pullback. If it does not fall below 64850, there should be a 15-minute level rebound in the early morning. Watch for a potential failure to break through 66500 during the rebound. If it does not break through 66500, then look for a third 15-minute level decline following the 1-hour level pullback. If it breaks through 66500, it may test around 67000 before another 1-hour level pullback.
If it directly falls below 64800, it is almost confirmed to be a 1-hour level decline, and the support below needs to be around 64000.
ETH
The overall 4-hour level rebound for Ethereum has already formed a 5-wave 1-hour level structure. From a structural perspective, a 4-hour level pullback could occur at any time. In the short term, there is an expected 1-hour level pullback, with attention to 2554. If it does not fall below this level, it may continue to extend upwards to test 2750 or 2800. If the 1-hour pullback falls below 2554, then a short-term 4-hour level pullback is very likely, with a target around 2400.
Trend Direction
Weekly Level: Downward, theoretically around 49000 is almost enough, and the probability of starting a weekly level rebound is increasing.
Daily Level: Upward, in the short term, continue to look at the range of 67000-70000.
4-hour Level: Upward, as long as it stays above 64000, continue to look for a 4-hour level rebound. If it falls below, it is considered to be a 4-hour pullback.
1-hour Level: Downward, a short-term 1-hour level pullback is expected, closely monitor the strength of the pullback.
15-minute Level: Downward
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This article is time-sensitive, so please be aware of the risks. The views in this article are personal opinions and are for reference only!
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