Original Author: BitMEX

Brief Overview

• The cryptocurrency market has continued its bullish trend, with the total market value (excluding BTC and ETH) breaking through key trend line resistance. If you read our previous weekly report and increased your position, you may now be in profit ;)

• This week's surge is attributed to the People's Bank of China announcing its most powerful easing measures in recent years, following the unexpectedly aggressive 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve last week. The combined effects of these policy shifts have injected new optimism into the cryptocurrency market.

• Altcoin market has outperformed $BTC, with multiple tokens recording significant gains. Notable performers include $SEI, $SHIB, and $NEAR.

• In our trading analysis section, we will explore Arthur's latest article on "Super Cycle of Volatility" and analyze how he maintains his position as the king of cryptocurrency trading despite macro predictions in 2024 being less accurate than flipping a coin.

Data Overview

Top-performing Coins

• $SEI (+39.2%): As another parallel EVM chain, SEI remains a top speculative coin due to its close relationship with Monad.

• $SHIB (+34%): $SHIB has added over $33 billion to its market value in the past week, which is very impressive for this meme coin.

• $NEAR (+27.2%): Possibly benefiting from the surge in the U.S. stock market's artificial intelligence sector. Compared to other alternative L1s, NEAR is undervalued, making it an attractive investment choice.

Underperforming Coins

• $DOGS (-11.3%): Recent listing of Hamster Kombat on Binance is dispersing liquidity and attention from $DOGS.

• $DYM (-4.4%): With its competitor Initia announcing a major funding round this week, $DYM's continued poor performance is not surprising.

• $XRD (-1.3%): Only a 1.3% drop - you can't say $XRD had a bad week. It's just that other coins were too strong.

News Highlights

Macro:

• Weekly outflow of ETH ETF: $26.3 million (source)

• Weekly inflow of BTC ETF: +$612.1 million (source)

• China introduces a series of measures to boost the economy (source)

• PayPal to allow U.S. business accounts to buy, hold, sell, and transfer cryptocurrencies, except in New York State (source)

• U.S. presidential candidate Harris pledges to make the U.S. a leader in the blockchain field and reiterates support for digital assets (source)

• Societe Generale to launch Euro stablecoin EURCV on Solana (source)

Projects

• Berachain launches RFB incentive program to provide liquidity and other support for early teams (source)

• Initia completes $140 million Series A funding with a token valuation of $350 million (source)

• Robinhood and Revolut are exploring the launch of stablecoins (source)

• Cryptocurrency-native travel booking platform Travala integrates Solana blockchain, enabling hotel and flight bookings using SOL, USDT, and USDC, and offering SOL travel rewards (source)

• $EIGEN will commence trading on September 30, with a 7-day withdrawal period for staked users (source)

• Ethena to launch a new stablecoin supported by BlackRock's BUIDL fund (source)

• Blast introduces Global Deposit Layer (GDL), supporting deposits to any Blast address or DApp through multiple centralized exchanges and fiat on-ramps (source)

• Worldcoin launches World ID verification service in Malaysia (source%EF%BC%89)

Trading Alpha

Note: The following content does not constitute financial advice. This is a compilation of market news, and we always encourage you to do your own research before making any trades. The following content does not imply any guarantee of returns, and BitMEX is not responsible for your trading performance.

Arthur's Accuracy Rate is Only 25%… What Keeps Him Profitable?

In his latest article "Super Cycle of Volatility," Arthur calculated his accuracy rate and found that out of 8 short-term macro predictions he made in 2024, only 2 were correct.

How does he maintain his position as the king of cryptocurrency trading despite having an accuracy rate in 2024 that is lower than flipping a coin?

Arthur has a core fundamental principle in investing: due to excessive leverage in the trading and financial systems since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, **governments and central banks around the world are unable to handle any significant financial market volatility - whenever the (government-operated) financial system faces challenges, they resort to the "Brrrr" button - printing money to suppress volatility and maintain the operation of the traditional financial system.** This has been their consistent policy response.

Therefore, despite Arthur's frequent misjudgments of short-term market trends, this pattern remains unchanged. As long as Arthur's portfolio can take advantage of the printed fiat currency - a key tool for governments to suppress natural volatility and avoid systemic collapse - his short-term prediction accuracy becomes less important, as long as policy responses meet expectations.

Let's take a look at the scale of money printing required to suppress volatility.

It's like pushing an inflated balloon underwater - the deeper you push, the more energy is needed to keep it underwater. Global distortions are so extreme, especially for U.S. hegemony, that the amount of money needed to maintain the status quo is sharply increasing every year. This is a physical law.

The red line in the above chart roughly represents total bank credit, including excess reserves and other deposits and liabilities (ODL) of the Federal Reserve - a reliable indicator of commercial bank loan growth. ODL tends to increase during crises and periods of high volatility. This pattern indicates that continuous increases in money printing are needed to suppress inevitable volatility in the financial system.

Role of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

All this newly printed fiat currency needs an outlet, and Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies have become the perfect release valve.

The fiat currency needed to suppress volatility will inevitably flow into cryptocurrencies. Assuming Bitcoin's blockchain technology remains robust, it will continue to benefit from the elite's attempts to defy economic laws. There must be a balance - you can't create something out of nothing. In our modern digital environment, Bitcoin has become the most technologically advantageous way to counter the luxury behavior of ruling elites.

Patience and Risk Management

Profiting from short-term price movements is notoriously difficult. Arthur's record - successful only 2 out of 6 times - illustrates this difficulty. If Arthur had gone all-in on every prediction, going long or short, his family office Maelstrom would likely be bankrupt by now.

While there is undoubtedly a super cycle of volatility suppression, patience is crucial. Avoid risky behaviors, such as borrowing fiat currency to buy more Bitcoin. Remember, impatience in the face of inevitable fluctuations in underlying value can lead to total loss.

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