Market Status Analysis: At which stage of the bull market are we currently in?

There are many reasons to be excited.

Translation: DeepTechFlow

In today's article, we will discuss:

What stage of the cycle are we currently in?
On-chain data analysis

What stage of the cycle are we in?

If you've seen my recent X posts, you already know that I am optimistic about the crypto market in the fourth quarter.

But in this issue, I will detail where I believe we are in this crypto cycle and explain why I remain optimistic about the near future.

Summary: There are many reasons to be excited.

Let's start with some crypto charts that I believe are relevant.

BTC Cycle ROI is exactly where it typically is at this stage of the cycle.

Source: @intocryptoverse

The performance of BTC in this market cycle is very similar to the bull markets of 2016 and 2020.

Financial markets tend to be cyclical because human nature is constant. That's why the possibility of BTC reaching its peak seems unlikely.

The past two bull markets have two common points:

The real BTC uptrend typically begins around 170-180 days after the Bitcoin Halving
The BTC cycle top is typically reached around 480 days after the Bitcoin Halving

cryptoquant.com

Since the 2024 Bitcoin Halving event, only 160 days have passed.

Based on past occurrences, we are likely only a few weeks away from the moment when BTC is likely to resume its uptrend.

Obviously, this assumes that history will repeat itself, but I don't see any significant reasons why this time would be different.

BTC Exchange Reserve is decreasing at an extremely fast pace.

Since January 2024, over 500,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.

When large holders withdraw their tokens from exchanges, it usually means they plan to hold them for a period of time rather than sell them in the near future.

The chart above seems to indicate that large holders have been accumulating BTC heavily over the past few months.

If this accumulation continues, supply tightening will be inevitable.

Bitcoin Season has historically been the first stage of each new cycle.

The information chart in the above image was created many years ago, but it summarizes well what happened in the 2016 and 2020 cycles.

First, BTC starts to rise, and its market dominance also increases.
Then, attention starts to shift to large-cap coins (such as ETH, SOL, etc.).
Finally, almost every altcoin starts to rise, regardless of its market value or fundamentals.

Recently, BTC's market dominance reached a new multi-year high.

This may indicate that we are still in the first stage. Historically, altseason usually begins after BTC's market dominance starts to decline. I believe we are approaching the second stage.

All the above charts and historical data from previous bull market cycles lead me to believe that BTC is likely to set new all-time highs in the fourth quarter.

So, is there a possibility of being wrong?

Let's briefly discuss the possibility of a bear market.

There are still many macro uncertainties.

If a global economic recession begins, digital currencies will be greatly affected.

However, I believe the likelihood of a recession in the near future is small, because 2024 is an election year in the United States.

In order to give Kamala Harris a chance to win the U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party will do everything possible to delay the election.

While I believe a U.S. economic recession may begin at some point in the next 3-4 years, I think the likelihood of it happening in 2024 is very small.

Therefore, I am optimistic about cryptocurrencies in the fourth quarter.

Hopefully, our beliefs and patience will soon be rewarded.

On-chain dynamics

Sui's Total Value Locked (TVL) has surpassed Polygon for the first time.

Sui is one of the fastest-growing blockchains, it is an L1 blockchain that achieves high transaction throughput through parallel transaction execution.

The recent surge in most metrics seems to be due to two key factors: its very strong community and increasing popularity on X.

In addition, its team has also reached important partnerships with several Web2 and Web3 giants, including Circle and the parent company of TikTok.

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