Two days ago, after finishing an article about the US stock market, I unexpectedly saw that the central government had made a major move in the financial sector.

At a meeting jointly convened by the People's Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the country announced a series of heavyweight financial policies.

Among these policies, what I am particularly concerned about is the stimulus for A-shares. This stimulus, in simple terms, can be understood as the People's Bank of China opening the door for institutions to buy stocks with funds.

This measure can be described as significant, but compared to the Bank of Japan's direct purchase of stocks and its "whatever it takes" market rescue, there is still a certain distance to go.

There are various feedback and opinions on this stimulus, and I won't comment on the policy itself. What I want to say is that at least it reflects one thing: the top leadership has realized the importance of the stock market. And the determination to rescue the market is quite strong.

In my early articles and several online exchanges, I have expressed the following view:

Looking at the current economic situation in our country and the measures that can be taken in all aspects, I believe that the only way to reverse or slightly alleviate this negative trend at present is to boost A-shares.

To what extent should A-shares be boosted?

I conservatively believe that the Shanghai Composite Index should be boosted to at least 4000 points. In fact, I think that 4000 points may not be enough. If it can be boosted to 6000 points, there will be some effect, and of course, it would be even better if it can exceed 6000 points.

Not only does the index need to reach a certain height, but it also cannot take too long. I believe the deadline is the end of December 2025. In other words, if the Shanghai Composite Index has not reached the conservative level by the end of December 2025, then we can only pray for the best for the future.

Now it seems that the central government has begun to shift from purely policy-oriented measures to more substantial financial support.

Will this series of measures be effective? That remains to be seen over time.

At least, two days ago, after the policy was announced, all major indices rose by more than 4%, which is extremely rare in history.

But it cannot be ruled out that if the stock market continues to perform poorly, there may be the possibility of even greater stimulus measures being introduced. In any case, it seems that the stock market must be boosted.

In response to the current upward trend, stock market participants' reactions and operations mainly fall into the following four categories:

The first category completely gives up on A-shares, paying no attention to them, regardless of the situation.

The second category, due to this sudden major change, has rekindled hope for A-shares and started paying attention to them, preparing to enter the market at any time.

The third category believes that regardless of the subsequent market conditions, there will probably be a good market in these few days, so they rush in to speculate.

The fourth category is just a temporary solution, not addressing the root cause. When it comes to operations, they quickly check their portfolio to see if they have broken even. If they have, they immediately cash out to break even.

Among these four types of responses:

The first category is neither more nor less.

The second category may not be numerous at the moment, but I estimate that as the market rises, they will become more and more.

The third category is very typical of speculators and will not be few.

The fourth category is probably the majority.

If my guess is wrong and there is no market for A-shares before the end of December 2025, then participants in the second to fourth categories will probably not only lose money but also suffer even greater losses.

If my guess is correct and there is a market for A-shares before the end of December 2025, participants in the second to fourth categories will probably still lose money.

So, regardless of how the market performs next, participants in the first category, although they have shut out the possibility of profit, have also shut out all risks and can at least break even. Among these four categories of participants, they will have the best outcome.

Participants in the second to fourth categories must be able to completely give up on A-shares after breaking even if they want to have a better outcome. However, if my guess is correct and there is a market for A-shares before the end of December 2025, is there a type of participant who can make money?

I believe there is, and that is the person who genuinely believes that there will be a market. Among these people, there are two types of views on the market's outlook:

The first type: A-shares have completely bottomed out, and the stock market will steadily rise from now on.

The second type: There may be an even more tragic final plunge next, which is very likely to break through the previous low, leaving most hopeful individuals in tears and heartbroken. Only after this final plunge is completed will A-shares experience a vigorous bull market.

If it is the first type, then I estimate that there is still a good chance for the Shanghai Composite Index to exceed 4000 points, but it's hard to say whether it can break through 6000 points.

But if it is the second type, then I estimate that there is a good chance for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 6000 points.

I wrote this article purely because of this sudden major policy and my feelings about it. It is not in any way a recommendation or reference for readers to act on.

However, my view on A-shares has always been the same, so let's wait until the end of December 2025 to see what happens next.

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