Continuous discussions for three days have seen the Air Force accumulating strength, yet the market remains in a high-level oscillation and consolidation phase. Despite several attempts to initiate a pullback, the daily chart has forcefully pulled the price back each time it showed signs of decline. As the saying goes, experienced traders fear oscillation, while novices fear one-sided movements. From a technical perspective, without a breakthrough above 65,000, it is difficult to define a signal for an upward trend. Therefore, most bottom-fishing players in the market are feeling tormented. For those who read the articles by the "猎手" (Hunter), the constant advocacy for a major pullback, followed by the market being pulled back every time there are signs of a downturn, has left both bulls and bears feeling somewhat confused.

Everyone, don't be impatient. Stay calm and composed. Opportunities for one-sided market movements always require enduring torment. Otherwise, how can more people be trapped? This is the essence of the zero-sum game in the market. Unintentionally, a sudden surge can clear out retail investors. If the market keeps giving you opportunities to escape, who will be left to bear the burden?

Especially in the current market environment, both bulls and bears are aware that a one-sided market movement is imminent and that it has reached a stage where it must be initiated. If too many false breakthrough signals are given, the result will be a mess. In that case, what is the point of playing this game? Therefore, our focus should be on whether there are any signs of the current box oscillation collapsing.

Today, the market once again quickly rebounded after probing down to 62,700, with a short-term rebound of 1,000 points. Superficially, the box structure remains solid, and even the upward trend channel only briefly broke before quickly recovering, seemingly with a feigned shot. Now, let's interpret this from three perspectives.

From the perspective of the timing for initiating a one-sided market movement—As of this morning, the market has not fallen below 62,700. It can be seen that the Bitcoin market is in a standard and stable upward trend channel. Both the upward and downward retracements have been completed, and whether it's the previous high, the V-shaped reversal high, or the top of the upward trend channel, they all overlap at 65,000. This is the best breakthrough opportunity. Once it breaks through, it means that the market is about to start a one-sided upward movement.

The reality, however, is that after reaching a high of 64,800 yesterday, the market quickly started a rapid pullback, and this morning it feigned a break of the upward trend channel. At this point, we need to be clear about one concept: at the most favorable stage (technical conditions met, news conditions met, market sentiment met), if a one-sided upward breakthrough is not achieved, but instead is suppressed again, it indicates that the current upward momentum is limited. Put simply: you are not making use of the opportunities given to you.

From the perspective of the cycle pattern—Currently, the daily chart is in a state of triangular oscillation convergence. After the breakthrough, the market has been hovering above the top of the upward convergence, and during this period, it has completed multiple retracements. Logically, we all know that a triangular oscillation convergence is a stage of trend accumulation before a one-sided market breakout. Once the pattern is broken, a one-sided movement begins.

So, after the upward breakthrough of this large cycle, theoretically, a one-sided movement should quickly start. Even if a one-sided upward movement is not immediately initiated, from a technical perspective, a pullback to confirm support is already satisfied. The daily chart has already confirmed support at the high point multiple times. However, a one-sided movement has still not been initiated, and 65,000 has not been broken. As high-level consolidation continues over time, do you still think it's an adjustment in the upward process?

From the perspective of the trend—It is known that 62,300 is the support after the breakthrough of the top of the triangular oscillation. This morning, the market fell below the upward trend channel. Why didn't it accelerate the decline? This is easy to understand because the cyclical support at 62,300 is still there. If it directly accelerates the decline below this level, for long positions, this position breaking down is a signal to run, without a significant expansion of losses. Would the people orchestrating this game be foolish enough to give you an opportunity?

The information given now is as follows:

1. The short-term upward trend channel has been damaged (fell below 62,700 this morning).
2. Multiple attempts to break through the 65,000 level have failed, and a strong pullback has occurred in the short term. Moreover, the best breakthrough window has not been achieved. Based on these two pieces of information, we can see that the bullish momentum is weakening.
3. The support point of the upward trend line is around 61,300, which is also the location of the previous double top. The support has been directly overlapped.
4. The top support of the triangular oscillation convergence at 62,300 has been retraced multiple times without initiating a one-sided upward movement.

Based on these two pieces of information, we can conclude that the high-level consolidation is just luring long positions to stay in the market as much as possible, waiting for the structure to collapse after breaking down, and initiating a one-sided decline. The signal for the start of the decline is 62,300, and breaking below 61,300 is a signal for the acceleration of short positions during the decline.

Additional note: When the market has already realized that 65,000 has become a key point of contention for both bulls and bears, this level has become a gimmick. Because once it breaks through 65,000, regardless of how it is subsequently manipulated, it will not be able to change the bullish sentiment. For the bears, they will only choose to short near 65,000, and once it breaks through 65,000, they will stop loss. It cannot fundamentally harm the market, and seasoned traders will wait for a false breakthrough of 65,000 before going short. A one-sided rally only brings joy to spot traders and has no impact on the futures market.

Initiating a medium- to long-term layout plan—Today, short-term positions can be initiated around 63,800 (within 200 points above and below), with a stop loss at the round number of 65,000. The target is to take profit at 62,300-62,500.

Step one: When the market tests the 63,800 area again, only a small reduction in positions is made, around 30%. Although this position will encounter support, the rebound strength will be very limited.

Step two: When the market falls below a certain level, it will fall to another level. At this point, there will be a significant rebound, but it will be short-lived. It will not continue, and in the short term, it will choose to directly fall below. At this stage, the reduced positions will be added back.

Step three: When the market falls to a certain area, 70% of the positions will be closed, and the remaining positions will set a defensive point. After the market falls below a certain level, the final accelerated decline will begin, and then the short positions will be completely closed after completing the bottoming oscillation.

Long-term trend positions are only announced in the internal core group. The entire set of planning and argumentation has been completed. The last time, starting from May, the trend top short at 69,000 was discussed, and it was initiated in June, reaching 53,000-50,000, nearly 20,000 points of space. It was publicly available for free on the entire network, including real-time follow-ups by the "猎手" during live broadcasts. However, free things are not valued by many, and only a few can persevere. This time, only cooperation can join. The entire community team controls the rhythm, and the "猎手" does not need to explain the control of the trend. History has proven this countless times.

Follow the WeChat public account for first-hand cryptocurrency information. "猎手" brings you real-time positions, practical teaching, complete layout planning, and reasonable theoretical support. Every evening, there are live practical explanations. The cryptocurrency exchange group welcomes knowledgeable people from all directions. Don't ask me how profitable it is. Follow the rhythm of the "猎手" and make money quickly and stylishly!

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