Two articles have finally come to an end. For beginners, Hunter's argumentative articles may be a bit obscure. Today, everyone can relax and take a look at the charts and discuss the points.

Today, let's talk about the core point again. The cyclical decline is in a state of accumulation and has not yet started. Traditionally, we define the market as simply rising or falling. However, those who have been in this circle for a long time will understand that both declines and rises can take on various forms, such as surges followed by declines, or declines followed by rebounds.

Looking at this week's market, the hourly and four-hour charts have constructed a complete upward trend channel. The top of the trend channel is suppressed at 65,000, which is also the top suppression point of the daily V-shaped reversal. We have repeatedly mentioned in articles and live broadcasts that this suppression point is a rational shorting point in the market. Now, the technical form has fully met the conditions for shorting. So, how will the market move?

It is known that the current market is supported by 62,300 and 62,700, extending an upward support line.

It is known that the current market is suppressed by 64,700 and 64,800, and during the surge, it continuously approached 65,000, providing an ideal shorting position.

From the perspective of ordinary retail investors, the price is currently at a high level, and the obvious suppression at 65,000 leaves no room for longing. There is no suitable stop-loss point below, so even if you are bullish, you cannot open a position. You can only choose to passively short.

Scenario 1: If the market remains at a high level and consolidates repeatedly before 8 p.m., and provides a shorting position close to 65,000, then the market tonight will definitely need to break through 65,000, complete a spike, and clear short positions at high levels.

Operational method: Aggressive traders can short at 65,500-65,800, stop loss at 66,300, target 63,000-62,800, reduce position by 50%-30% when it falls below 62,800, continue to hold, and look at 61,300-61,500. Add to the position when it falls below 61,300, and take profit at 58,000-57,500 below.

Conservative traders can wait for the market to fall below 65,000 and directly short, stop loss at 66,800, and follow the same target and subsequent position management as above.

Scenario 2: If the market directly starts to decline before 8 p.m. (Hunter personally believes that the probability is too low), and the short-term maintains a consolidation around 63,000.

Operational method: When the market falls below 62,800, short directly, stop loss at 63,500, reduce position by 50%-30% at 61,500, continue to hold when it falls below 61,300, and look at 58,000-57,500 below.

The central bank has initiated a reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing one trillion yuan of liquidity, and the RMB exchange rate is approaching the 7 mark. Let's interpret this big news for everyone today. Many people wonder if the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate means that our economy is also weak like the United States, so we are also releasing liquidity? Will it cause inflation, and will it make the already difficult life even more difficult?

There is no need to worry too much. First of all, I mentioned in the article on September 21st that the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the release of liquidity were inevitable. The fundamental reason is that the Fed's interest rate cut has led to the depreciation of the US dollar, and the RMB will passively appreciate. I have repeatedly emphasized that the core contradiction in the China-US game involves the issue of the RMB exchange rate. The goal of the Chinese central bank is to maintain the long-term stability of the exchange rate. This stability does not mean allowing it to soar or plunge, but to maintain it within a certain range for a long time, so that the currency value is not affected by external factors. This is crucial for the internationalization of the RMB.

So, the purpose of releasing one trillion yuan through the reserve requirement ratio cut is to control the exchange rate, ensure that the RMB is not affected by the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciates, and on the one hand, to ensure that the foreign exchange market does not overheat, and on the other hand, to ensure that foreign trade is not hindered. If the RMB performs too well, it is not conducive to exports (if the price is too high, others will not buy).

Will this one trillion affect domestic prices? In fact, it will not. This one trillion is used to stimulate economic consumption. The governor of the central bank has also clearly announced this to the market, and it is only used to reduce mortgage rates and conduct reverse repurchase in the stock market. In other words, it is indirectly distributing money. If you have a mortgage, you should know this month that the mortgage has been reduced. For example, if you had to pay 5,000 yuan for the mortgage in the previous month, now you only need to pay 4,500 yuan, which is equivalent to giving you 500 yuan to spend. The stock market is the same. If you were cut too deeply before, this round of reverse repurchase will help you recover, and there is money in your account, and you can use the extra money for consumption.

Follow the WeChat public account for first-hand information in the currency circle. What Hunter brings to you is real-time points, practical teaching, complete layout planning, and reasonable theoretical support. There are live broadcasts every night for practical explanations, and the currency circle exchange group welcomes knowledgeable people from all directions. Don't ask me how much profit I make. Keep up with Hunter's rhythm, make money quickly, and look handsome!

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