Author: Crypto Wei Tuo

I didn't attend many events this year, except for Breakpoint, all of them were private gatherings. Here is my summary of the conference.

1. The Winter of First-tier Institutions is Coming

Almost all the first-tier institutions I talked to gave negative feedback, some even went as far as saying "first-tier is dead." Basically, every institution has a large amount of SAFT sitting in their accounts, either without TGE or TGE but not unlocked (the price looks very bad). Several OTC institutions mentioned that they have trouble finding buyers for many deals.

As for the regular new fund-raising activities, they are all significantly reduced. The actual amount received is only about 1/10 of the externally claimed 100 million, with the rest being committed. In the previous round, it was easy to raise 5 billion or 10 billion, but in this situation, each project can only increase the investment amount, which inevitably raises the valuation, creating one "heavenly demise" project after another, but this time there is no SBF. So, they can only ask a few "top funds" to take a hit.

In addition, almost all first-tier institutions mentioned wanting to enter the incubation track. However, bluntly speaking, the personnel configuration and GP capabilities of these institutions have nothing to do with incubation, not even a single project experience from 0 to completion - so how can incubation be done?

2. Everyone Pretends to Care About "Real Scenarios"

Every institution I encountered at the event would ask me what areas I have been looking at recently (even though everyone is actually pretending to look at deals). When I asked this question back, many of them answered that they are looking at projects with real income, real users, and real scenarios, and then they would go on about RWA, AI, Depin, and so on, as if these terms really mean something. Everyone tacitly understands - there is really nothing to use as a thesis to prove that they are "researching."

In fact, everyone knows that the idea of finding real Web2 scenarios to fill the "Web3" narrative void was debunked in the previous round in 2022. Today, looking at the projects listed on Binance from the previous round to today, the most dismal performance is from applications with "scenarios." It's not that Crypto doesn't need this kind of innovation, but rather their true "externalities" to the crypto circle have nothing to do with asset liquidity.

Apples don't fall far from the tree.

3. New users are entering the market in ways that industry practitioners cannot understand

Many institutions and project parties at the event used the opening line, "In this round, there are no new users or new funds coming in. In order to attract them, how should we XXXX."

On the other hand, @IGGYAZALEA dropped the most outrageous but awesome party in Crypto history, attracting attention from outside the circle in a truly Crypto-native way (not like the top signal from Zuckerberg's sister, We Gonna Make It);

Everyone knows that this @Solana Breakpoint is the best public chain ecosystem conference in recent years, worthy of being called the carnival of the crypto circle. But why is BP so awesome?

What I think many people have not noticed is that the KOLs @SolJakey @solanasteve_ @chooserich, in addition to Solana, @redactedcoin, and the one who "smuggled 20,000 condoms" @doginhood_io, who won the "Best KOL Award," are continuously producing video content for Breakpoint in a way that has never appeared before, covering everything happening in the crypto circle.

This is a way of having fun that has never appeared before, belonging to the Tiktok era of Gen Alpha. Many Solana project parties or Cabals are less than 20 years old - and these are things that old industry practitioners cannot understand or comprehend.

Newcomers are entering the market in ways and at speeds never seen before, and many people are simply turning a blind eye. Soon, the entire narrative logic, operation methods, and communication logic of the crypto circle projects will undergo fundamental changes.

Conclusion

The biggest lesson in human history is that people never learn any lessons from history. There is no offense intended, but judging from the summaries of many people after this 2049 conference, this point still applies in the crypto circle.

Every time the industry encounters difficulties, we tend to resort to hollow "real income, real users, real scenarios," and "bringing in traditional funds." However, the lesson of history is that these remnants of the industrial age are just tourists in the Crypto world, at most coming in to do some Carry Trade, and will not change anything. Without starting from the native crypto circle, the so-called "real scenarios" are just a curious use of coins that were already established decades ago.

The biggest constraint in the crypto circle is not the product, but the people. People's ways of thinking and learning abilities are limited and fixed. Therefore, the audience's understanding and perception of Crypto during a period determines how they will enter the crypto circle as liquidity providers, and is also the only factor determining what the crypto circle needs to become.

In plain language, the older generation is too stupid to use new things, and we must wait for them to die before the new generation takes over.

You can't find a new continent following an old map (unless you are really dumb like Columbus).

What exactly went wrong, to the point that many of the best people in our industry still cannot learn from history and realize that the future has arrived?

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