Due to the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, BTC has shown a fluctuating upward trend in the past week. BTC reached a high of $64,745 on September 23 and then retreated, with a maximum weekly increase of 9.4%. Currently, BTC has entered a phase of consolidation and is fluctuating around $63,200. If BTC successfully holds the support level of $64,000, it is expected to challenge the next resistance level, potentially leading to greater market volatility (the above data is from Binance spot, 15:00 on September 24).
The 50 basis point rate cut by the FOMC is the main reason for the recent rise in cryptocurrency assets. Although the U.S. election is also a major catalyst in the current market, and Harris, who has not openly supported cryptocurrency assets, is leading in the polls, the short-term market narrative has shifted to the FOMC, and the current polls have not exerted excessive pressure on cryptocurrency assets.
The 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve not only boosted market sentiment but also signaled that the United States will enter a loose monetary cycle. Precious metal prices, represented by gold, have risen accordingly, and U.S. stocks have also reached historic highs. As of the close on September 23, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new closing highs, rising by 0.15% to 42,124.65 points and 0.28% to 5718.57 points, respectively.
Market Environment
Multiple officials of the Federal Reserve express views on rate cuts, highlighting the Fed's greater focus on employment issues
On September 23, multiple officials of the Federal Reserve expressed their views on rate cuts. Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve stated that more rate cuts may be needed in the next year, and rates need to drop significantly. In addition, he expressed satisfaction with the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut, indicating that the Fed is concerned about employment risks, not just inflation issues.
Kashkari of the Federal Reserve predicted that the policy rate of the Federal Reserve would be 4.4% at the end of 2024 and 3.4% at the end of 2025, consistent with the median forecast of Federal Reserve policymakers. The Federal Reserve will take smaller rate measures in the future.
Boston of the Federal Reserve believes that the 50 basis point rate cut at this meeting does not "lock in" the pace of future rate cuts. The process of economic normalization is "faster than previously expected," and monetary policy needs to be adjusted accordingly.
The Bank of Japan stated that it is suitable to raise interest rates if trend inflation rises as predicted
According to data from Kinetic, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda Haruhiko, stated, "If trend inflation rises as predicted, it is suitable to raise interest rates. If the economic and price trends are in line with the forecasts in our quarterly outlook report, we will raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan must implement monetary policy in a timely and appropriate manner, without setting a fixed timetable, while considering various uncertainties."
The U.S. BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for 3 consecutive trading days
Data from Lookonchain shows that on September 23, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $4.53 million, achieving net inflows for 3 consecutive trading days. Among them, the Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow is Fidelity's FBTC ETF, with a single-day net inflow of $24.928 million, and FBTC's total historical net inflow has reached $9.805 billion. Currently, Fidelity holds 177,067 bitcoins, equivalent to approximately $11.2 billion.
Recommendations for Layout
As regulatory policies continue to tighten and cryptocurrency assets lack new catalysts to support further gains, it is recommended that investors reasonably allocate assets, reduce reliance on a single market, and minimize the risk exposure brought by short-term market fluctuations. At the same time, it is advisable to take profits appropriately to ensure stable APY income. Long-term investors should closely monitor medium and long-term opportunities in the market and may consider allocating some stable cost-protecting products (such as shark fins and trend intelligence wins) to ensure basic income and hold assets for income.
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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase invitations for residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
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