The Intelligence Age

In the coming decades, we will be able to do things that seem like magic to our ancestors.

This phenomenon is not new, but it will accelerate. Over time, people's abilities will greatly improve; we can now accomplish things that our predecessors thought were impossible.

The reason we are more capable is not because of genetic changes, but because we benefit from the social infrastructure, which is smarter and more capable than any one of us; in an important sense, society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. Our ancestors--and their predecessors--created and achieved great things. They contributed to human progress, and all of us benefit from it. Artificial intelligence will provide tools for humans to solve difficult problems, helping us add new supports to the scaffolding that we cannot solve on our own. The story of progress will continue, and our descendants will be able to do things that we cannot.

This will not happen overnight, but we will soon be able to work with artificial intelligence, which can help us do more work than without artificial intelligence; eventually, each of us will have a personal artificial intelligence team composed of virtual experts from different fields, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual family teachers who can provide personalized guidance in any subject in any language and at any speed. Similar ideas can also improve healthcare, create any software people can imagine, and more.

With these new capabilities, we can achieve a level of shared prosperity that is difficult to imagine today; in the future, everyone's life will be better than it is now. Prosperity itself does not necessarily make people happy--there are many miserable rich people--but it will significantly improve the lives of people around the world.

We can view human history from a narrow perspective: after thousands of years of scientific discovery and technological progress, we now know how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it into computer chips with astonishing precision and on a tiny scale, and use it to run energy, ultimately creating increasingly powerful artificial intelligence systems.

This may be the most important fact in all of history. We may have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I believe we will definitely reach this goal.

How are we going to achieve the next leap in prosperity?

Three words: Deep learning works.

In 15 words: Deep learning works, and with the expansion of scale, the effects can be foreseen to be better, and we are investing more and more resources in it.

That's it; humans have discovered an algorithm that can truly learn any data distribution (or, in other words, generate the basic "rules" for any data distribution). The more computing and data available, the more it can help people solve difficult problems. I find it impossible to truly understand how important it is, no matter how much time I spend thinking about it.

We still have many detailed issues to solve, but it is a mistake to be troubled by any specific challenge. Deep learning is effective, and we will solve the remaining problems. There is much we can say about what might happen next, but the most important point is that artificial intelligence will improve as it scales, bringing meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world.

Artificial intelligence models will soon become autonomous personal assistants, representing us in performing specific tasks, such as coordinating medical services for you. One day in the future, artificial intelligence systems will become so excellent that they can help us create better next-generation systems and make comprehensive scientific progress.

Technology will take us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age, and then into the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved by computing, energy, and human will.

If we want as many people as possible to master artificial intelligence, we must reduce the cost of computing to make it abundant (which requires a lot of energy and chips). If we do not build enough infrastructure, artificial intelligence will become a very limited resource, and people will fight for it, and artificial intelligence will mainly become a tool for the rich.

We need to act wisely and firmly. The arrival of the Intelligence Age is a major development, facing very complex and extremely serious challenges. It will not be a completely positive story, but its positive significance is so great that we have a responsibility to come up with ways to deal with the risks in front of us for ourselves and for the future.

I believe the future will be so bright that no one can describe it now; a notable feature of the Intelligence Age will be widespread prosperity.

Although all of this will happen gradually, astonishing victories--restoring the climate, establishing space colonies, and discovering all of physics--will eventually become commonplace. With nearly infinite wisdom and abundant energy--the ability to generate great ideas and the ability to realize these ideas--we can do many things.

As we have seen in other technologies, artificial intelligence will also have downsides, and we need to work from now on to maximize the advantages of artificial intelligence while minimizing its harms. For example, we expect this technology to bring significant changes to the labor market in the coming years (both good and bad), but most changes in job positions will be slower than most people imagine, and I am not worried that we will have nothing to do (even if these jobs do not seem like "real work" today). Humans are born with the desire to create and mutually benefit, and artificial intelligence will allow us to amplify our abilities as never before. As a society, we will return to a world that is constantly expanding, and we can focus on play and games again.

Much of the work we do today would have been considered a waste of time by people hundreds of years ago, but no one would wish to be a lamplighter when looking back. If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would find the surrounding prosperity unimaginable. If we could fast forward a hundred years from today, the prosperity around us would also be unimaginable.

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