Annual 2049 Short Essay - How TF Are We Not Learning?
I didn't attend many events this year, except for Breakpoint, which were all private gatherings. Here is my summary of the conference.
- The Winter is Coming for Tier-One Institutions
Almost all the tier-one institutions I talked to gave negative feedback, some even going as far as declaring "tier-one is dead." Essentially, each institution's accounts are filled with a large amount of SAFT that has not been unlocked (and the prices are already very unattractive). Several OTC institutions mentioned that they have deals that cannot find buyers.
As for the regular fundraising for new funds, it has significantly shrunk. Despite claiming to have raised 100 million, the actual amount received is probably only 1/10, with the rest being committed. In the previous round, it was easy to raise 5 billion or 10 billion, but in this situation, each project can only increase its investment amount, inevitably raising the valuation, resulting in one "heavenly demise" project after another, but this time there are no more SBFs. So, they can only bring out a few "top funds" to die a little.
Additionally, almost all tier-one institutions mentioned wanting to enter the incubation track. However, bluntly speaking, the personnel configuration and GP capabilities of these institutions have nothing to do with incubation, and they don't even have any experience taking a project from 0 to completion - so how are they supposed to do incubation?
- Everyone Pretends to Care About "Real Scenarios"
Every institution I encountered at the event would ask me what areas I have been looking at recently (even though everyone is actually pretending to look at deals). When I asked this question back, many of them answered that they are looking at projects with real income, real users, and real scenarios, and then they would go on about RWA, AI, Depin, and so on, as if these terms actually mean something. Everyone tacitly understands - there is really nothing they can use as a thesis to prove that they are "researching."
In fact, everyone knows that the idea of finding real Web2 scenarios to fill the "Web3" narrative void was debunked in the previous round in '22. Today, looking at the projects listed on Binance from the previous round to today, the most dismal performance is from applications with "scenarios." It's not that Crypto doesn't need this kind of innovation, but rather their true "externalities" to the crypto circle have nothing to do with asset liquidity.
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
- New users are entering the market in ways that industry insiders cannot understand
Many institutions and project parties at the event used this opening line: "This round, there are no new users or new funds coming in. In order to attract them, how should we do XXXX?"
On the other hand, @IGGYAZALEA threw the most outrageous but awesome party in Crypto history, attracting attention from outside the circle in a way that even Zuckerberg's sister's "We Gonna Make It" top signal did not.
Everyone knows that this @Solana Breakpoint is the best public chain ecosystem conference in recent years, a veritable festival in the crypto world. But why is BP so awesome?
I think what many people have not noticed is that the KOLs @SolJakey, @solanasteve, @chooserich, and others outside of Solana, like @redactedcoin, and the one who "smuggled 20,000 condoms" @doginhoodio, and the "Best KOL Award" winner Professor Crypto, are continuously producing video content for Breakpoint in a way that has never been seen before, belonging to the Gen Alpha generation of the Tiktok era. Many Solana project parties or Cabals are less than 20 years old - and these are ways of having fun that old industry insiders cannot understand or comprehend.
Newcomers are entering the market in ways and at speeds never seen before, and many people are simply turning a blind eye. Soon, the entire crypto project narrative logic, operational methods, and dissemination logic will undergo fundamental changes.
Conclusion
The greatest lesson in human history is that people never learn any lessons from history. There is no offense intended, but from the summaries of many people after this 2049 conference, it seems that this point still applies in the crypto world.
Every time the industry encounters difficulties, we tend to resort to hollow phrases like "real income, real users, real scenarios," and "bringing in traditional funds." However, the lesson of history is that these remnants of the industrial age are just tourists in the Crypto world, at most coming in to do some Carry Trade, and will not change anything. Without starting from the native crypto circle, the so-called "real scenarios" are just a curious use of coins that were already established decades ago.
The biggest constraint in the crypto world is not the product, but the people. The way people think and their ability to learn are limited and fixed. Therefore, the audience's understanding and interpretation of Crypto during a period determines how they will enter the crypto circle as liquidity providers, and is the only factor determining what the crypto circle needs to become.
In plain language, the older generation is too stupid to use new things, and we must wait for them to die before the new generation takes over.
You cannot find a new continent by following an old map (unless you are really dumb like Columbus).
What exactly went wrong, to the point where many of the best people in our industry still cannot learn from history and realize that the future has arrived?
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