The much-anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has finally been announced. This time, not only did the interest rate decrease, but the magnitude of the cut exceeded the expectations of many, as it was not 25 basis points, but 50 basis points.

As a result, online discussions about the impact of the interest rate cut have become more intense.

Regarding the interest rate cut, in recent online discussions, I have shared slightly more than before. My viewpoint can be summarized as follows after studying and organizing for some time:

After this period of learning and organizing, I tend to believe that for the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the impact of the interest rate cut should not be overly emphasized, especially not to the point of shifting the focus and attention away. The focus and attention of the cryptocurrency ecosystem still lie in the innovation and invention within the ecosystem. External easing is a bonus, but not a game-changer.

Therefore, I have not been particularly focused on interest rate cut news before. However, among the numerous online articles, I have found some viewpoints worth sharing.

A certain brokerage firm in China has released a research report on the impact of historical interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on U.S. stocks, gold, A-shares, and the RMB exchange rate.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts can generally be divided into two categories: relief interest rate cuts and preventive interest rate cuts.

Relief interest rate cuts are mainly triggered by unexpected situations or emergencies, with the purpose of stabilizing the market and preventing the situation from deteriorating further. Examples include the bursting of the internet bubble in 2001, the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Preventive interest rate cuts are primarily aimed at preventing a downturn or recession, with the purpose of stabilizing the economy and employment. This time's interest rate cut falls into this category.

Relief interest rate cuts generally have a larger magnitude and higher frequency, while preventive interest rate cuts have a relatively lower magnitude and less frequency.

Starting from 1982, the Federal Reserve has had a total of 5 preventive interest rate cuts. Except for the one in 1987, the other 4 cuts occurred only 3 times, with a total magnitude not exceeding 81 basis points.

Starting from 1982, in a total of 9 interest rate cuts (including 4 relief interest rate cuts and 5 preventive interest rate cuts),

• The probability of U.S. stock market increase exceeds 60%;
• The probability of gold price increase is close to 60%;
• The probability of A-shares increase is less than 50%;
• The RMB has only increased once, and otherwise remained unchanged or decreased.

The above are the main results shown in this research report.

Upon careful examination of the data in this research report, we can discover some additional information:

In the past 5 preventive interest rate cuts, except for the one in 1987, the highest total basis points cut was only 81 points. This time's preventive interest rate cut has already decreased by 50 basis points. Therefore, based on historical data, I speculate that the future magnitude of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not be significant.

If this speculation happens to be correct, then after the interest rate cut is completed in the future, the interest rates in the United States will still remain high, leading among the major global currency interest rates. This will continue to exert significant pressure on other countries, possibly making USD assets still very attractive.

In addition, if the total magnitude of this round of interest rate cuts is not large, then the amount of liquidity it can release will not be substantial. Therefore, it is probably unrealistic to expect financial assets (including cryptocurrency assets) to inflate into a big bubble solely through the Federal Reserve's easing.

While the interest rate cut has indeed provided a relaxed funding environment for all financial assets, is it certain that funds will flow into all financial assets?

I believe the key is still to see whether a certain type of financial asset is perceived by investors to have potential for future growth. If there is potential, funds are likely to flow in; if there is no potential, then even if the price is low, funds may not necessarily flow in.

From this perspective, let's look at cryptocurrency assets. The key is whether they are perceived by investors (especially large funds) to have potential for future growth and development.

So, what is the key to judging whether cryptocurrency assets have potential for future growth and development?

Especially in the face of competition from U.S. stocks, I believe it is only whether new applications and ecosystems can emerge within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

If it remains as it is now, with no application innovation, then at most, it will be a case of U.S. stocks reaping the benefits while cryptocurrency assets merely benefit to a lesser extent.

In conclusion, I still believe that from the perspective of cryptocurrency assets, we should not harbor unrealistically high expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

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