Daily Sharing
In yesterday's article, we mentioned that the rebound on the 1-hour chart has not ended, and it is expected to reach the 64000~65000 range. Today, the highest has reached 64133. The rebound on the 1-hour chart is almost over, and there may be a 15-minute consolidation before another upward move. It is more likely that there will be a 1-hour pullback on Saturday or Sunday, but the pullback may not be significant, and there will be another 1-hour rebound to push towards 65000, with a chance to extend upwards to around 66500 or higher.
The market is constantly changing, and we need to find relevant critical points to respond to these changes. For example, if the price of BTC breaks through 63000, the probability of a continued upward trend on the 4-hour chart will increase, possibly breaking through 65000, and the upward trend on the daily chart will be confirmed. The judgment of the expected pullback on the 4-hour chart will be negated. This 63000 is a critical point in my opinion. With the observation of this critical point, we can avoid falling into the trap of being overly bearish or bullish.
BTC Medium and Long Term
Weekly Chart:
On the weekly chart, it is uncertain whether BTC can initiate the third upward trend to reach 95000 or 100000+ near the 49000 level, but there is a certain probability. To confirm the rebound on the weekly chart, we can observe from two aspects. First, observe whether the weekly MACD can form a golden cross near the 0 axis and continue to rise. Currently, there are signs of a turnaround in the weekly MACD near the 0 axis, but it still requires several weeks to observe the formation of a golden cross. Second, whether the daily rebound of BTC can effectively break through 70079. If it does, it is highly likely that a new round of upward movement on the weekly chart has begun.
The probability of the current rebound to break through 70000 is relatively high, but we still need to observe the situation around 70079.
Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, it has been confirmed that there is an ongoing rebound from 49000, with the initial target of 66500~70000. Whether the daily chart can further break through 70079 to reach around 72000 or higher is still uncertain. If it can break through 70079, it can be considered that a new round of upward movement on the weekly chart has begun. Subsequently, it will accelerate to around 76000~80000, followed by a pullback, and then the third upward movement on the daily chart to reach 95000 or 100000+.
However, if this rebound on the daily chart fails to break through 70079, there will be a pullback on the daily chart, at least to around 58000 or lower.
4-Hour Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, the ongoing third 4-hour rebound within the daily rebound has reached 64133 from the initial rebound at 49000 to the second pullback at 52550. It is highly likely that this 4-hour rebound is not over yet, with a chance to reach around 66500.
The third 4-hour rebound may not necessarily directly break through 70000. If it fails to do so, there will be a fourth 4-hour pullback, with an expected consolidation, and then a continued upward rebound. Overall, there is hope for the daily chart to test the 70000 level and break through it.
BTC Short Term
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.
1-Hour Chart:
On the 1-hour chart, there have been 5 movements. Due to the lack of divergence in the strength between leaving the consolidation and entering the consolidation, there will likely be a 1-hour pullback and another 1-hour rebound.
The 1-hour rebound from leaving the consolidation is likely to be over, with internal divergence. There may be one more upward move to 64200~65000, but it may also skip that and go directly into a 1-hour pullback. It is expected to see a 1-hour decline on Saturday and Sunday, focusing on the 62000 or 61500~62000 range. There will be another 1-hour rebound afterwards, to see if it can continue to reach 65000 and around 66500.
15-Minute Chart:
On the 15-minute chart, there are two possible trends to consider. The first is to consolidate a 15-minute level consolidation, then push up to above 64100, ending the 1-hour rebound, and then have a 1-hour pullback over the weekend, as indicated by the red arrows in the image.
If the 15-minute level pullback directly falls below 62600, it will have a 1-hour pullback to around 61500~62000, followed by the seventh 1-hour rebound to break through 65000. The specific trend needs to be observed, and it is recommended to focus on long positions during the pullback.
ETH
Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, Ethereum is currently undergoing a rebound from 49000. The rebound is expected to break through 2800, with resistance above the daily chart at 2900~3000. If it cannot effectively break through, there will likely be another downward movement on the daily chart to below 2300. This is because the overall third downward movement on the daily chart is not divergent. Unless the daily upward movement can break through 3000, the bearish trend on the weekly chart of Ethereum will not end soon.
4-Hour Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has been rebounding from 2150. It remains to be seen whether it can break through 2800. If it cannot, there will likely be a short-term 4-hour pullback to around 2300~2400, followed by another 1-hour rebound to reach 2800~3000.
1-Hour Chart:
On the 1-hour chart, it is likely that the third 1-hour rebound is almost over, preparing to start the fourth 1-hour pullback. If the pullback occurs, focus on around 2430, and then there is expected to be a fifth 1-hour rebound to see if it can reach around 2600.
Trend Direction
Weekly Chart: Downward, the downward trend on the weekly chart, theoretically around 49000, is almost over, with a limit of around 45000~48000. Whether it has ended still needs to be observed.
Daily Chart: Upward, in the short term, the focus is on the 67000~70000 range.
4-Hour Chart: Upward, the 4-hour rebound has extended and broken through 63000, and will continue to extend to around 66500 or higher.
1-Hour Chart: Downward, it is expected to see a 1-hour pullback over the weekend, focusing on the 62000 or 61000~62000 range.
15-Minute Chart: Downward, focus on 62600 below.
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The article is time-sensitive, so please be aware of the risks. The views in the article are personal opinions and are for reference only!
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