Which coins are bullish and which ones should be approached with caution?

Is the bull market back? It's hard to say. But it's essential to be prepared for which coins are bullish.

According to various statistics, the most profitable sector in the first half of the year is widely known to be meme coins, while the sector where most people lose money is VC coins. However, the specific coins may not be well-known, all being big names such as strk, zk, and so on, the bigger the name, the more disastrous the losses.

In the crypto world, the actual value of coins is not significant, and the phenomenon of valuable coins having no value is widespread. Therefore, the focus should not be on finding value, but rather on considering factors such as chip distribution and narratives.

I. Narrative and Recommendations for Meme Coins

The essence of the narrative is how many people believe and promote "it can still rise." In this regard, meme coins excel, but the downside is that they all have a considerable market value. For example, $pepe, $wif, $brett, and others are good, but those who promote them must use very powerful slogans, such as 100 billion or even 1000 billion.

These coins have the most "believers and promoters," with all chips in circulation, essentially a PvP situation. Overall, they can be considered, but due to their large market value, some smaller market value coins may also be worth considering.

It's worth mentioning runes and glyphs. Personally, I may not consider them as a primary focus due to the significant fragmentation in this sector. They have fewer "believers and promoters" compared to the larger meme coins, and the lack of mutual support is quite severe.

I think the new memes to focus on are mainly those on Binance, with good liquidity, such as $bome, $neiro, etc. The lowercase neiro currently mainly involves different chains and narratives, which is somewhat uncertain. There is also no data on whether non-Chinese players are involved. If it follows the pattern of runes, its potential may be weaker, but it's worth continuous observation.

II. Narrative and Recommendations for Value Coins

This category can be divided into new coins and old coins. There are no particularly recommended new coins as their chip releases are too aggressive. Therefore, all new coins are temporarily abandoned. If you have any specific recommendations, feel free to share them in the comments.

Old coins refer to those with relatively good chip circulation and potential for new developments. Here are a few options:

In reverse order of attention—because the lower the attention, the more likely there is information asymmetry.

1. Satoshi's DeFi $FTM

This coin doesn't have a large following, but it has been performing relatively strongly behind the scenes.

With fully distributed chips, it is currently undergoing a complete upgrade, fully compatible with EVM, and all rewards are directed towards developers. There are several highlights that are likely to gain more attention in terms of narratives:

• Satoshi's DeFi

  Many people may not understand who AC is in the FTM team. In simple terms, he has led DeFi and is known as Satoshi's DeFi. Knowing this is enough for newcomers.

  Currently, there are fewer influencers like SBF in this round of the market. Although AC's comeback this time should be more cautious (which is a good thing), overall, he will have a very attractive effect—other projects cannot find someone as influential and topical.

• Surpassing parallel EVM

  Parallel EVM is a track that has started and is yet to be further hyped. Recently, there is a coin called sui with a market value of 13.8 billion, which has been aggressively promoted. It is a pioneer in the narrative of parallel EVM. There is another potential market leader, monad, with an estimated market value of possibly another hundred billion.

  From the current situation of FTM's performance on the test network, it may become the fastest EVM-compatible public chain. From this perspective, whether it's the unreleased monad, the aggressively promoted sui, or the already 70 billion sol, compared to them, the 20 billion FTM has a good cost-performance ratio. It naturally benefits from the hype around large market value public chains— the more sol, sui, and monad are promoted, the more energy this faster and smaller market value project will absorb. If there are more projects or memes breaking out above, it is likely to take off.

• Relatively lower risk

  This coin bottomed out around 0.3 in the most bearish market, so the current price of 0.6 has a downside potential of 50%. This is quite different from coins like strk, arb, zk, which started with a market value of hundreds of billions and have continuous releases.

• Resemblance to the earlier sol at 10u

  I see a bit of a feeling of sol's adversity reversal in it—sol at around 10u at that time is a bit similar to today's FTM, with very few followers, but the team is still actively developing, and suddenly it skyrocketed.

  The mainnet of the project is about to go live, with relatively good chip distribution, active official promotion, offline activities, developers, and community engagement, and the coin has been quite resilient since I started paying attention to it at 0.45, gradually rising.

1. Lending king aave

This protocol is very established, with fully released chips, and is in the business of lending. Even in the worst bear market, it still generates tens of millions of dollars in annual revenue.

In the past, aave tokens were mainly used to incentivize the protocol, so there has always been selling pressure. Now that the release is almost complete, and the next step is to introduce fee dividends.

In the crypto world, there are only a few protocols that have stood the test of time, continue to provide ongoing dividends to users, and may even get better. This is also the reason I noticed the FTM project, as Satoshi's DeFi has a very strong reputation.

In addition to dividends, AAVE has several points worth noting:

• For example, Trump's new DeFi project is based on aave as the underlying infrastructure. In the future, BlackRock and others are going to get involved, and they are all centered around the ETH chain and aave.

• On the base layer, there is currently a major event, cbBTC. There are hundreds of billions of dollars in BTC on Coinbase that need to be put on the chain. The most likely place to put them is to pledge and borrow USDT to leverage trading. Currently, AAVE's TVL may see a 10x or even larger increase. If everything goes smoothly, its valuation may also increase by 10 times.

  I used to wonder if everyone would create their own lending protocol, but then I realized that the possibility is getting smaller. Because lending involves fund security, it's actually a dirty and tiring job. The earnings come from the interest cut, but once there is a risk, it's a disaster. Therefore, mature protocols and teams like aave may be the preferred choice.

  Therefore, the bottom line for aave is a fully distributed chip, a stable protocol that provides dividends, similar to a company with a valuation of 20 billion, generating tens of millions of dollars in revenue daily and distributing it to token holders. This bottom line is quite clear.

1. ETH

You might think it's unnecessary to write about this. However, I still think it's worth mentioning. Although ETH currently has various problems and is being ridiculed, it is still the best and most valuable cryptocurrency.

What does V God's love life have to do with anything? I actually hope he dates more, gains more experience, and finds his true love. As for the current FUD, I actually think it's a good time to buy—in relative terms.

For example, I saw a perpetual contract exchange being promoted by MC. At that time, I thought, if a contract exchange is set up on the Solana chain, and a large order encounters a crash and downtime, it would be quite distressing. ETH is still reliable and trustworthy.

Unless the crypto world disappears, ETH will remain the second most important cryptocurrency—because every FUD might be a blessing.

III. Other Considerations

Trading cryptocurrencies is truly not easy. Overall, choosing to hold valuable coins for the long term is the best strategy. Constantly trading can easily lead to losses.

In addition, despite a 50% interest rate cut, the stock market is still booming—stocks worth tens of trillions are still soaring. This truly gives me an insight: never think something is too high or too low, as human greed and madness are impossible to estimate.

Holding onto high-quality chips and not moving them, with the upcoming interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, good times are not far off. Holding onto high-quality chips, it is expected to see an average return of 5-10 times in the next 2 years.

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