Tonight is another day that will go down in financial history. The Fed's interest rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion, and people are no longer discussing whether there will be a rate cut, but rather the magnitude of the cut.

Financial institutions such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Citibank have all predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tonight. However, a more aggressive rate cut is also possible. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, according to CME's "Fed Watch," is 61%.

So the question now is how the interest rate cut will affect the price of Bitcoin.

BlockBeats has compiled some noteworthy viewpoints for readers to refer to, and we await tonight with great anticipation.

Different Environment, Optimistic Attitude

Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of Hedge Fund Sky Bridge

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of hedge fund Sky Bridge, stated in an interview on Wednesday that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points tonight, which is part of at least a 150 basis point cumulative cut over the next 18 months. He believes that this is good for asset prices in the United States and globally. With a series of Fed rate cuts and clearer cryptocurrency regulations in the United States, Bitcoin is expected to reach a historic high of $100,000 by the end of the year.

Scaramucci stated that in the early stages of the next congressional term in the United States, some legislation supporting cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, and stablecoins will be passed, legislation that is supported by both the Democratic and Republican parties. At the same time, he is optimistic about the prospects of the Harris administration's cryptocurrency regulations, as an advisor to her campaign team has indicated that Harris will support measures to help the industry develop while maintaining appropriate safeguards.

Zach Pandl, Research Director of Grayscale Investments

Zach Pandl, research director of Grayscale Investments, stated in an interview with Forbes two weeks ago that "a rate cut in the context of a soft landing is quite unfavorable for the US dollar, but favorable for assets such as Bitcoin. Taking these factors into account, the market will once again explore historical highs in the coming months."

However, Zach Pandl also stated that if the unemployment rate continues to rise and signs of layoffs emerge, "we may see a period of economic weakness, during which many assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks will weaken in a typical cyclical manner." Zach Pandl believes that the period of economic recession will be an excellent time to accumulate Bitcoin, as the market is likely to see loose monetary and fiscal policies in the future, just as it did during the pandemic. However, if the US labor market continues to deteriorate and the US economy experiences a brief recession, Bitcoin may face downward price risks. These are the main risks we face in the next 6 to 12 months.

Reproducing the 2022 Rate Cut Trend?

Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute

OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute stated in an interview with Decrypt that a rate cut will mark a "shift" in monetary policy and believes that this may boost cryptocurrencies. "Historically, this increases the liquidity of the financial system, which is often beneficial for risk assets such as Bitcoin," in other words, the more risk-taking investors there are, the more funds they are willing to invest in this area, which may lead to an increase in the price of digital assets.

Crypto Rover, Founder of CryptoSea

Crypto Rover, founder of CryptoSea, believes that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points within 24 hours and is optimistic about the future development of Bitcoin. "The last time this happened, the bull market for Bitcoin began."

Lark Davis, Founder of Wealth Mastery

Lark Davis, founder of Wealth Mastery, also predicted the impact of this rate cut by combining it with the trend of Bitcoin during the 2022 Fed rate cut, stating, "The last time the Fed cut rates, Bitcoin followed an upward parabolic trend, and if history repeats itself, the next 6-12 months will be crazy."

Interest Rate Cut's Impact on the Market's Future Trend, How Do Traders View It?

Trader Ahmed@CryptoBheem

Trader Ahmed also believes that the rate cut will be beneficial for the rise of Bitcoin, but the realization process will be more convoluted. He predicts that in the case of a 50 basis point rate cut, the market may experience drastic fluctuations, and after a 25 basis point rate cut, the market will undergo a short-term decline before beginning to recover its upward trend. "If (the Fed cuts rates by) 50 basis points, I will sell all (the Bitcoin I hold)."

Altcoins Will See Upside Potential

Arthur Hayes: The market will crash and then enter a bull market after the rate cut, and ETH will perform strongly during the rate cut cycle

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated during the "Thoughts on Macroeconomics Current Events" keynote speech at the main venue of TOKEN2049:

When the Fed cuts rates at a time when the US government is spending the most money, it is a huge mistake. When inflation exceeds their target and real GDP growth has exceeded 2% for about 8 to 9 quarters, the situation becomes even more complex. Therefore, although many people expect a rate cut to drive the stock market and other markets higher, the reality is different. I believe the market will collapse a few days after the interest rate adjustment, as this will narrow the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

I want to list some winners and losers that have emerged from changes in the interest rate environment due to the decline in Treasury yields, as well as the interest income that can be generated by holding the safest legal assets. Winners include ENA, ETH, ETHFI, and PENDLE. I personally hold a large amount of these assets, but I do not hold ONDO. Maelstrom (his family office) has a portfolio that is very suitable for an environment of falling interest rates.

Many people believe that Ethereum has made no progress in this round. During the bull market in the past few months, Solana has performed very strongly. The main argument for Ethereum is that it is an internet bond, a 4% yield internet bond. So why would I invest in this bond when the government bond yield is higher than this level? But if government bond yields quickly decline, then investing in ETH becomes profitable. The returns from Ethereum will exceed the returns from the US dollar and government bonds. The Fed will cut rates, the market will crash, and then reignite the bull market.

Trader Noodles

Trader Noodles believes that a rate cut usually increases liquidity in the market, and a rate cut will cause the depreciation of the US dollar, leading to a decline in the US dollar index (DXY). Dollar depreciation usually makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive. Investor risk appetite may increase. Investors may turn to risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns.

But Noodles' view is more aggressive. He believes that "rate cut -> US dollar index (DXY) falls -> increased risk appetite -> decline in Bitcoin market dominance -> ETH/BTC rebound -> altcoin rebound." When the market's interest in risk assets increases, investors may move funds from major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to other assets, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin's overall market share. As funds flow into Ethereum and other mainstream altcoins, more funds will also flow into other altcoins. As a result, the overall altcoin market may experience a rebound, and the ETH/BTC trading pair will also rebound.

Founder of MN Consultancy, Michaël van de Poppe

Founder of MN Consultancy, Michaël van de Poppe, believes that the Fed may initially cut rates by 25-50 basis points. If this happens, Bitcoin will continue to rise to $65-68K, and the rate cut will also benefit DeFi, thereby boosting the rise of ETH. Despite the current poor chart of ETH, after the rate cut, "ETH will also do something."

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