Reviewing the targets and performance since I started investing, to be honest, I originally intended to pursue a value investment approach. However, looking back at the targets I invested in, whether they made money or lost money, it seems that none of them can be considered as "value investments." This may indicate that my own level is not sufficient. Let me share my experiences and lessons learned for reference.
I started by investing in A-shares. At first, I was just playing around, buying various targets randomly. Later, I felt that the real estate industry was undervalued (😂) and had a positive outlook on Vanke. This was around 20 years ago. Vanke's profits and growth were soaring, and as a well-known conservative player in the industry, I never thought it would be on the brink of bankruptcy. Not only that, I felt that Vanke's value had already been fully priced, so I looked for growth stocks in the industry and found Sunac. Sunac's profit growth and valuation were impressive. I held the stock for a while, then sold it without making a profit or a loss. I think I at least spotted a flaw in Sunac at the time. Its asset yield for the 100 billion Sunac Fun Parks was extremely low. Back then, it was hyped up on Snowball as a replacement for Disney, but I was never interested in these suburban amusement-type things. Another reason was that Sunac mistreated old shareholders when it spun off Sunac Services (property). I felt that Sun Hongbin was unreliable (even though his reputation in the industry is honest 😂).
Later, SaaS became popular. Since I work in the high-tech industry, I carefully researched SaaS targets. I selected two, one being Youzan, which turned out to be profitable. The other was CrowdStrike, but I missed the opportunity to buy it when converting to USD by a week. So, I never bought it.
Later, I bought Futu and SF Express. I bought Futu because I thought it could also follow the SaaS model, and based on its growth rate at the time, the valuation was really not high. I wrote analysis reports on all of these, and if anyone is interested, I can share them later. At the end of 2020, everyone knew it was a bull market. At that time, I held Futu and Youzan. Youzan rose during the day, and Futu rose at night. It really felt great, like being a stock god. 😂
There was also another target I was bullish on, iQiyi. But at that time, I was already interested in Bitcoin, so I didn't hold onto iQiyi. I won't go into details.
Everyone knows what happened after the interest rate hike. Youzan's income declined due to the termination of cooperation with Pinduoduo, and Futu was hammered due to the tightening of forex. I did see these risks at the time, but I didn't expect them to be so severe. Ultimately, the core issue was that I didn't have enough understanding of the macro impact. But who can blame me? After all, I'm a value investor, right? According to Peter Lynch, if you spend 10 minutes studying the macro, you've wasted 10 minutes. 😂
Later, I shifted to the coin circle. First, I studied "The Future of Money," which piqued my interest in Bitcoin. By the way, I accidentally got into an argument with the author on X about two months ago, mainly because I didn't realize it was him. Otherwise, I would never argue with my idol. 😂
Old X friends know my trajectory after that, as I moved from Snowball and Weibo to X. The core targets were BTC, LUNA, and ETH.
There was also a target, Voyager, that caused me a huge loss. At the time, I thought it was the Futu of the coin circle… but everyone knows what happened later.
So, looking back at the targets I chose:
- Vanke and Sunac are close to bankruptcy.
- Futu and Youzan dropped back to my buying price or even lower.
- Voyager went bankrupt and returned to zero.
- LUNA went bankrupt and returned to zero.
- ETH's exchange rate dropped from 0.08 to 0.04.
Only Bitcoin has never let me down.
Ah, time really makes people grow old.
If there are any lessons to be learned, I think it might be these:
Investing is like a battlefield, between life and death. It must be approached with caution and not taken lightly.
Differentiate between cyclical stocks (like Futu and BTC) and growth stocks. Generally, extremely rapid growth is unsustainable. There are only a few Amazons, Googles, and Tencents in the world. Don't assume that you can grab these exceptional stocks as soon as you enter the market, as you probably won't.
If you believe in an industry, invest in the leader, not in seemingly undervalued growth stocks. There are too many lessons on this, such as Sunac, Voyager (vs. Coinbase), and Ethereum. Whenever I followed this principle, I always made money, like with Youzan and Futu, which are the leaders in their respective fields.
In recent years, macroeconomic impacts have become increasingly significant, and you cannot ignore them.
Finally, here's a lesson that's not really a lesson: don't use leverage, don't play with contracts. The reason for not using leverage is that on a weekly basis, I default to being cautious. As long as you choose the right targets, you can always buy time with time. But if you use leverage, it means your time and space are being squeezed.
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