The Three Kingdoms situation in the PerpDEX track: Wei-HyperLiquid, Shu-Drift, Wu-Aevo. The crown of Binance on-chain coins, a hat contested by three parties.

However, as a long-term holder of Aevo tokens and a heavy player on the platform, I have fallen into the suspicion of Infra structure-product utility theory.

Whether the DEV chooses to build on a general chain/Rollup+AMM DEX, or to self-build Rollup+Clob order book using OpStack, or to develop a dedicated L1+Clob order book using Cosmos SDK, the search for a balance point in asset composability, capital efficiency, and trade predictability cannot change the fact that PerpDEX's business growth heavily relies on airdrop expectations, points, and the Ponzi mechanism of token economics.

Take a look at the Aevo platform data. After the airdrop and trading mining activities ended, the number of active addresses, trading volume, and other data indicators plummeted sharply, just like Starknet and Zksync.

Why is this happening? A friend from an exchange once gave me a hint: the average lifespan of CEX contract players is 60 to 90 days. On-chain players generally have a higher risk preference than CEX players, so their average lifespan may be even shorter, plus the difficulty of obtaining on-chain contract players is much greater than that of CEX contract players. Simply put, the user base of PerpDEX is already small and "dies" quickly, making it difficult to attract new players.

Without a sufficient and continuous supply of on-chain contract players to gamble against, market-making institutions naturally have no incentive to deploy large amounts of capital and increase risk exposure to provide liquidity for PerpDEX.

Encountering a double dilemma on the supply and demand sides, this is the main reason for the narrow real market space of PerpDEX.

Does PerpDEX still have any opportunities? Currently, there are two opportunities in sight:

1⃣ Ethereum Pectra upgrade, realizing the smart contractization of EOA wallets and promoting chain abstraction landing, simple and fast address acquisition, unified UX, and unified liquidity, which will greatly reduce the threshold for PerpDEX to attract new users.

2⃣ The U.S. FIT21 bill is passed, and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) gains regulatory dominance over cryptocurrencies, which may unexpectedly promote the development of PerpDEX at the policy level.

That's all.

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