The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI data yesterday evening, showing that the consumer price index (CPI) growth rate for August dropped to 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6% and also lower than July's 2.9%. This slowdown has been consistent for 5 consecutive months, reaching the lowest level since March 2021.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI for August had an annual growth rate of 3.2%, in line with expectations and the previous value. However, the monthly core CPI was slightly higher than expected at 0.3%, which slightly exceeded expectations, reducing the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by two notches this year. Following the release of the CPI data, the market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 1 notch this month has increased from 66% yesterday to 85%, while the probability of a 2-notch rate cut has decreased to 15%.

Looking at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin fell after the U.S. stock market opened, reaching a low of $55,555 around 22:45, but then began to rebound. Around 10 a.m. this morning, it reached a high of $58,470. However, during the Asian trading session, it started a downward trend. At the time of writing, the price was $58,077, with an increase of about 0.8% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

Looking at the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart, although the bearish momentum has weakened, it still exists, indicating the possibility of continued adjustment or oscillation in the short term. Both KDJ lines are at high levels, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, with a risk of a short-term pullback. The RSI is in the neutral to slightly strong zone, with slightly more bullish momentum in the short term, but the market momentum is not strong. The upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands show a slight widening trend, indicating that market volatility will increase. The price is close to the upper band, and if it cannot effectively break through and stabilize, it may fall back to the middle or lower band.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart

Looking at the MACD indicator on the 1-hour chart, the DIF line is slightly crossing below the DEA line near the 0 axis, showing signs of a bearish crossover, and the green MACD histogram indicates a slight increase in short-term bearish momentum, with a risk of a pullback. All three KDJ lines are hovering around 50, indicating that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, and the short-term direction of the market is unclear. The upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands are slightly contracting, indicating reduced volatility, and the market is about to enter a consolidation range, requiring further breakthrough direction. The RSI is in the neutral to slightly bullish zone, although the market slightly favors the bullish side in the short term, the momentum is not very strong.

In summary, the expert provides the following suggestions for reference:

Short Bitcoin near the rebound to around $58,650, with a target of $57,300-$57,000 and a defensive position at $59,100.

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it's better to provide you with the correct mindset and trend, as teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish. The suggestion is to focus on the mindset, grasp the trend, and plan the layout and position of the market. What I can do is to use my practical experience to help everyone make investment decisions and manage operations in the right direction.

Drafting time: (2024-09-12, 18:30)

By "Expert on Cryptocurrency"

Special Note: The publication on the internet has a delay, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, stocks, and other financial markets, with many years of experience in actual trading. Investment involves risks, so caution is advised when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the expert's account for further discussion and exchange.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。