In the current industry, "questioning Ponzi" is considered naive when "understanding Ponzi and becoming Ponzi" becomes the mainstream idea. Loki's new work is like a beam of light into the "Plato's cave," reminding the cryptocurrency industry deep in the cave to collectively turn around and face the real world to solve real problems.
No matter how prosperous the study of Ponzi schemes is, I do not believe that Ponzi will be the endgame of cryptocurrency. No matter how sophisticated the Ponzi scheme is, it is essentially a physical dissipative system that requires constant input of energy or matter from the outside to maintain its structure and function.
Observing the Ponzi scheme from the perspective of a physical dissipative system:
"Low entropy" energy = funds from new investors
The "ordered structure" of the system = hierarchical structure of investors
"High entropy" waste = loss of funds and erosion of trust
Decrease in energy quality = requiring more and more new funds to maintain the same return rate
Limited external resources = the potential investor base is limited
Accumulation of entropy = overall decrease in market trust
Rising cost of structure maintenance = the cost of attracting new investors becomes increasingly high
Just like any dissipative system will eventually collapse because it cannot obtain enough "low entropy" energy, the Ponzi scheme will inevitably disintegrate due to the exhaustion of new funds. This is not accidental, but the inevitable result of the law of increasing entropy.
The cryptocurrency industry has come to this day, thanks to the early Bitcoin OG preaching and the later continuous creation of new narratives and construction of new primitives by top VCs such as A16Z and Pentera. From the perspective of Ponzi schemes, they are on one hand creating schemes and on the other hand attracting new investor funds, and then exiting during the bull market cycle. However, this "business model" has been internalized to the present day and may be approaching the upper limit of this dissipative system. For example, the penetration rate of cryptocurrencies in the US market has exceeded 20%.
The path to breaking the pattern lies in the age-old practice of building continuously innovative, improving efficiency, and creating projects with real value. This is because continuous innovation, efficiency improvement, and value creation can keep the system in a state of "far from equilibrium," under which the system may produce new and unexpected structures and functions, further enhancing its sustainability.
Therefore, the cryptocurrency industry urgently needs its own "ChatGPT" moment. Recently popular new tracks such as PayFi, Consumer Chain, AI Agent with Crypto Wallet, and Chain Abstraction have emerged as new solutions under such environmental pressure.
Of course, when evaluating the value of these projects, we need to counter popular ways of thinking such as technological determinism, background determinism, Infra worship, and instead focus on the product and growth.
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