According to the direction of the forecast bets on Polymarket, Vice President Kamala Harris seems to have defeated former President Donald Trump in the first presidential debate of the US presidential candidates on Tuesday, but cryptocurrency policy was not mentioned.
Despite Harris's good performance, in the Polymarket contract, the actual probability of winning for both candidates in the election is actually equal, and Harris's chances of winning have slightly increased during the debate.
This is the second presidential debate of the 2024 election. After the event on Tuesday, Harris's campaign team called for a third debate, which would be the second debate between Harris and Trump. This was also the second debate that did not delve into cryptocurrency, or even discuss general technical or financial issues outside of the economic part.
As he has done in recent weeks, Trump extolled the benefits of tariffs while testifying, and said he would impose "substantial tariffs."
Harris countered that Trump left the Biden administration with a trade deficit, "one of the highest deficits we've seen in our history."
Just as in the debates before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, including fact-checkers like CNN reporter Daniel Dale, Trump's statements were found to be more inaccurate than Harris's. Trump had at one point claimed - which was reported by The Wall Street Journal to be false - that immigrants in Springfield, Ohio were "eating dogs." (This statement has sparked some new memecoins on the token launch board Pump.fun, including EATING DOGS AND CATS.)
Busy night for Polymarket
After the two candidates unexpectedly shook hands, the gamblers on Polymarket had a busy night.
The market estimated the probability of the two shaking hands to be about 30%, with bets of about $360,000. Trump and Harris did shake hands that night - something that had not happened since the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Betters were quite skeptical about whether cryptocurrency or Bitcoin would be mentioned that night, with the likelihood of Trump mentioning cryptocurrency or Bitcoin at 26% and Harris at 14%.
A user named "trumpisreal" won over $10,000 in stablecoin USDC by correctly guessing that Trump would mention "Springfield" and "cats," referring to the rumor that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio were eating pets. The debate moderator pointed out that city officials said there was no evidence of this happening.
On the Harris side, when the Democratic candidate mentioned the "2025 plan" and "artificial intelligence" at the beginning of the debate, gamblers made money early that night.
Betters believe that the results of the opinion polls will show that Harris won the debate, with a support rate of 98%, and the possibility of Harris becoming a popular candidate in the Polymarket election contract the day after the debate is 59%. If the Ipsos/538 opinion poll conducted on the same day shows that Harris performed better, then Harris will be the confirmed debate winner in the contract.
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