I have been following the debate between Jianguo and Harris this morning. In terms of performance, Harris outperformed Jianguo, clearly coming prepared. Jianguo did not mention any crypto-related content. After the debate, stocks related to Jianguo and cryptocurrency concept stocks fell before the market opened. The next debate is scheduled for October.
The August CPI was lower than expected, but the market did not rise and instead saw a slight decline. At 2 am on September 19, an important moment for interest rate cuts, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 66%, and a 50 basis point cut is 34%.
Regarding interest rate cuts: For a cut in interest rates in a high-interest environment, coupled with the current economic recession, the cut may trigger investor concerns about the economic fundamentals. Although the interest rate cut is to some extent to stimulate the economy, investors may be cautious about the prospects for economic recovery, which is different from the quantitative easing under low interest rates in the 20s.
Bitcoin: The 3-day moving average has been supported twice by the MA120. Compared to the drop from 519 to 28800, there are some similarities, but there are also differences. The difference is that the drop to 28800 was followed by a breakthrough after grinding at the bottom for 2 months, while the current situation is a high-level oscillation for half a year. If it continues to fall without breaking through the MA120, there is an opportunity for a rebound. If it still falls below, it will require a longer time to adjust (for reference only).
The candlestick chart opened at 0:00 Singapore time. Yesterday, it pierced 58088, and this morning it hit 58044 before pulling back. Although 56000 provides support, the downtrend cannot be changed without breaking through the pressure.
On the 4-hour chart, it is still within the downtrend channel. The rebound from 52500 has not effectively broken through 0.382, indicating a weak rebound. It is also below the double negative sandwich formed on August 28-30.
The current trend is similar to the drop from 72000 to 58400 and the rebound to 64000. It needs to continue to drop to 49000-50000 before a rebound can start, and there is also the possibility of falling below 49000 and then recovering. When will the stage of decline stop? I will only consider entering the market when there is a massive rebound after a piercing.
Support: Pressure:
Ethereum: The daily chart forms a rounded top rebound from 2820, and the rebound has not broken through 0.382, indicating weakness. The downtrend line on the daily chart has not been broken, and the candlestick bottom of the previous rebound at 2112, as well as the double negative sandwich bottom from August 28-30, are under pressure. In short, a rebound that does not effectively recover key support is not considered a reversal of the decline.
On the 4-hour chart, it continues the consistent upward channel with no signs of breaking down at the time of writing.
Support: Pressure:
If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate the bull and bear markets together!!!
The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, subject to real-time updates.
Focus on candlestick technical research, and win-win global investment opportunities. WeChat public account: 交易公子扶苏
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
