Preface: Investment involves risks, please proceed with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publishing. The article is for reference only, and your readership is welcome!
Time of writing: 16:22, September 7th, Beijing time
Market Information
Daily news: Ethereum Foundation's financial report, stablecoin trials by major banks in Japan, continued decline of spot Bitcoin ETF, etc.;
The total market value of cryptocurrencies is $1.93 trillion, with a 24-hour decline of 3.71%;
On September 6th, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETF in the United States was 4216 BTC, and the net outflow of Ethereum ETF was 15631 ETH;
US interest rate futures rose after Powell's speech, currently pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September;
Federal Reserve Governor Powell: Will support "premature" rate cuts if appropriate;
Citigroup: The cryptocurrency market will remain highly correlated with stocks;
Market Review
As mentioned earlier, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to start declining. As of now, the decline has occurred as expected, and it may take a longer time period. As of the previous article, it has been about a week, and the current low point for Bitcoin is at 52550, basically reaching our predicted target near 52400. Ethereum's low point is at 2150, approaching the short-term low point near 2111 after breaking through the 2260 position. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is also approaching day by day. As mentioned in the previous article, do not have high expectations for going long after this rate cut. After the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum, is there an opportunity to buy the dip? A simple analysis is provided below;
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin's trend is continuously refreshing its low points and moving its high points downward. History will not repeat itself, but it will be remarkably similar. I believe there is a relatively high chance that Bitcoin will break through the short-term low point near 49000 in this decline. Every previous decline has broken through the level, so I also believe this time it will continue to break through. Currently, the support level for Bitcoin's decline is near 52400, which can provide short-term support. Additionally, it is the weekend now, so the market should not have significant fluctuations, probably experiencing minor oscillations. Next week, it will likely test the 52400 support again. If this level is breached, then 49000 will not be the low point, and the low point is expected to be around 42000-41000. This will require another wave of accelerated decline, followed by a small rebound in response to the Federal Reserve's rate cut. This is my view of the market. The key point to watch is whether the 52400 level can hold. If the market tests 52400 again and leaves a long lower shadow on the daily chart, then it may be a good time to consider going long. Currently, the market is still dominated by bears, so trading can be done on the short side, or wait for the test of 52400 and then assess the situation before making a move. The recommended entry point is near 55000, with the target being the breach of 52400. Hold the position after the breach, and enter the market at your own discretion; for short-term trading, manage the risk and take responsibility for gains and losses;
ETH:
Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum's overall rebound is weak. As mentioned earlier, Ethereum is more suitable for short positions than long. This time, Ethereum's decline has already broken through the short-term support at 2260 and approached the short-term low point at 2111, indicating that the downward momentum of Ethereum is still strong. If Bitcoin breaks through the 52400 level, Ethereum will follow suit, and the expected support level below will be around 1570. The decline will be faster than the rebound. It is still recommended to continue shorting Ethereum, with the entry point near 2360, and the target is to see the breach of 2111. Hold the position after the breach, and enter the market at your own discretion; for short-term trading, manage the risk and take responsibility for gains and losses;
In summary:
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently dominated by bears. In the short term, pay attention to the breach of support levels for Bitcoin;
The article is time-sensitive, so be cautious of risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!
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Buddhist saying: "Impermanence" is the norm of life. Here, "impermanence" refers to uncertainty and unpredictability. Everything that causes us pain is due to excessive pursuit of certainty, such as: love, family, work, and friendship. Therefore, investment is based on the ability to defend and attack, using limited funds that can be borne to amplify infinitely, rather than always being defensive; In short, use limited funds that do not affect the quality of life to do things that, once successful, can change fate or improve life. Defense is only to prevent things from getting worse, while offense can make things better than they are now.
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