The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is coming tonight! Can it determine the trend of Bitcoin?

Last night, the ADP released its small non-farm payroll report, showing an increase of less than 100,000 jobs, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing growth, further confirming the cooling of the job market, which is favorable for the Fed's interest rate cut.

Some have mentioned that the reason for the decline is due to the poor ADP employment data, but in fact, it has little to do with it. If you carefully observe the changes in the U.S. stock market and BTC, you will notice that after the ADP report was released at 20:15 Beijing time, both BTC and U.S. stock futures actually rose. The best evidence is the opening of the U.S. stock market, where the S&P opened flat and the Nasdaq only slightly declined, while BTC was still in the rebound phase. Therefore, the decline has little to do with the ADP report.

Moreover, the ADP data is not bad. The more important data is the NFP report released in the evening, where the unemployment rate and wage growth are the most important for the Fed. It's not the first time that the ADP and NFP reports have shown contradictory results.

The interest rate cut in September is already a certainty, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut and a low probability of a 50 basis point cut. If there is a 50 basis point cut, it will be a major positive.

The release of the unemployment rate and NFP data at 20:30 tonight is particularly crucial, as the data will determine the extent of the interest rate cut. Be cautious of the possibility of exceeding expectations and prevent BTC from falling below 55,000.

The market is fluctuating repeatedly, and Bitcoin is currently at risk of falling below 56,000.

The recent market has shown typical "monkey market" characteristics.

After continuous retracement last week, this week has shown a clear up and down trend. The price trend of Bitcoin is still in a fluctuation range, which can easily wash out investors in short-term fluctuations.

Compared to the adjustment phase in August, the current position is more likely to reverse the bullish trend, but the market still needs to patiently wait for confirmation signals.

At this point, it's important to have a broader view and not be misled by short-term candlestick patterns. We are currently in a monthly large-scale adjustment period. If you are still focusing on the rebound on the minute chart, it's like pushing a downhill car uphill. When you run out of energy, you will eventually be run over by the car.

In the current market situation, it is recommended for investors to reduce subjective judgments, respect the actual market signals, and not make blind moves due to short-term market fluctuations.

Caution against downside risks:

Pay close attention to the performance of Bitcoin at the support levels of 55,555 and 56,000. If it falls below, closely monitor the support area of 53,000–54,000. If these levels cannot provide effective support, it may further increase the downside risk.

Patiently wait for medium to long-term positioning:

In the environment of repeated market fluctuations, it is suitable to wait for clearer trend signals before making medium to long-term positions. The market has not yet broken free from the fluctuation range, and any rush to chase the rise or bottom-fish behavior could lead to greater losses.

In summary:

The short-term trend of Bitcoin still faces significant uncertainty, and investors need to remain calm and patient, waiting for clearer trend signals before making decisions.

At this stage, only by controlling positions well can you make as much profit as possible.

We are still some distance away from bottom-fishing, so be patient with your holdings. Regardless of your actions, always keep some free positions, because the real big move has not arrived yet.

This is a time that requires going against human nature. It's unclear whether the decline will continue, but at this stage, the prices of many high-quality coins will make you miss the arrival of a major bull market!

Since I haven't avoided any of the previous declines, I won't miss any of the upcoming rallies!

In the cryptocurrency industry, if you want to seize the opportunity of the next bull market, you need to have a high-quality circle, where everyone can huddle together for warmth and maintain insight. If you are alone and at a loss, you will find that it's very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to huddle together for warmth or have any doubts, feel free to join us - WeChat Official Account: 有币志青年 (Youbizhi Youth)

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