Bitcoin performs poorly after halving, the four-year cycle theory may have come to an end.
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Market Dynamics Yesterday
Yesterday, 10 Bitcoin ETFs net outflow of 5514 BTC, 9 Ethereum ETFs net outflow of 4551 ETH
According to Lookonchain data, 10 Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 5514 BTC (approximately $317.82 million). Among them, Fidelity had an outflow of 2835 BTC (approximately $163.38 million) and currently holds 175515 BTC (approximately $10.12 billion).
On the same day, 9 Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 4551 ETH (approximately $11.11 million). Among them, Grayscale (ETHE) had an outflow of 6412 ETH (approximately $15.65 million) and currently holds 1800954 ETH (approximately $4.4 billion).
Tiger Securities launches virtual asset trading for AVAX, LINK, APT, and TON
According to Sing Tao Daily, Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) announced the opening of trading for Avalanche (AVAX) and Chainlink (LINK) to retail investors, and Aptos (APT) and Toncoin (TON) to professional investors. Tiger Securities disclosed that since fully opening virtual asset trading to retail investors on July 1, 2024, trading activity has significantly increased. Data from its investment platform Tiger Trade shows that the number of cryptocurrency trading orders and traders in Hong Kong in August 2024 has more than doubled compared to July.
Solana ecosystem DePin project Grass launches airdrop inspection page, with the first airdrop accounting for 10% of the total supply
According to official sources, Grass announced the launch of the airdrop inspection page. Currently, the inspection page only reflects the allocation of Closed Alpha and Epochs 1-7, excluding ongoing Bonus Epoch or To Be Announced allocations. The total supply will be 1 billion GRASS tokens, with 10% reserved for the first airdrop.
CFTC sues and reaches a settlement with Uniswap Labs
According to official CFTC news, the CFTC found that Uniswap Labs illegally offered leveraged or margined retail commodity transactions of digital assets through decentralized digital asset trading protocols. Uniswap Labs was required to pay a civil penalty of $175,000 and cease violating the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). The CFTC acknowledged Uniswap Labs' active cooperation with the enforcement authorities in the investigation and reduced the civil penalty.
Outlier Ventures: Bitcoin performs poorly after halving, the four-year cycle theory may have come to an end
According to The Block, Jasper De Maere, research director of Web3 accelerator Outlier Ventures, released a report stating that Bitcoin's price performance after the latest halving event was historically the worst, and investors should abandon the concept of the four-year cycle. Data shows that Bitcoin's price fell by about 8% within 125 days after this halving, while it increased by 739% (2012), 10% (2016), and 22% (2020) during the same period after previous halvings. De Maere believes that 2016 was the last time the halving significantly affected Bitcoin's price, and since then, miner block rewards have become insignificant in the increasingly mature and diversified crypto market. Despite Bitcoin reaching a new high of $73,836 on March 14 this year, De Maere stated that this was mainly driven by factors such as the approval of spot ETFs and was unrelated to the halving.
Web3 game Dimensionals abandons blockchain functionality and fully transitions to Web2 mode
According to NFT Plazas, game developer Mino Games announced that its roguelike card-building game Dimensionals will fully transition to Web2 mode, completely abandoning the previously integrated blockchain technology and NFT functionality. According to Sash MacKinnon, CEO of Mino Games, Dimensionals was initially launched with the Genesis Stone NFT series in March 2023 to attract mainstream players to the upcoming game. However, the project faced many challenges from the beginning: the whitelist giveaway activity was heavily attacked by bots, the project suffered multiple DDoS attacks, and changes in the NFT market landscape led to zero royalty income. Although Mino Games released a non-blockchain version on the Steam platform in March 2024, MacKinnon admitted that the Web3 project ultimately resulted in significant financial losses. He stated, "We chose the wrong track." The company subsequently decided to fully transition to Web2 game mode to attract a wider audience.
Ripple CEO: Stablecoin RLUSD expected to be released in a few weeks, not interested in U.S. IPO
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed at the Seoul Blockchain Week event in South Korea that the company is about to launch the stablecoin RLUSD pegged to the U.S. dollar, which is currently in the "private closed testing phase" and is expected to be officially released "in a few weeks rather than months." Garlinghouse stated that 18 months after the USDC decoupling event, Ripple saw an opportunity to enter the stablecoin market. In addition, Garlinghouse expressed no interest in conducting an IPO in the U.S., mainly due to the SEC's "hostile attitude" towards cryptocurrencies. He predicted that regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election, the U.S. SEC will usher in a new leadership, believing that the current chairman, Gary Gensler, has lost support from both parties. Regarding the legal dispute with the SEC, Ripple was fined $125 million last month, far less than the $20 billion proposed by the SEC. Garlinghouse sees this as a victory for the company and the industry. He also expressed regret over the SEC's recent enforcement action against the NFT market OpenSea, believing that the SEC's stance on treating NFTs as securities is wrong. Nevertheless, Garlinghouse remains optimistic about the development of cryptocurrencies in the next five years and looks forward to obtaining clearer regulatory guidance from legislators rather than the SEC.
Grayscale August Research Report: The market will retest historical highs by the end of the year, and the pessimism towards Ethereum is unfounded
Grayscale Research released its August market research report: The overall stability of the global market in August 2024 concealed significant fluctuations during the month. On August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the annual Jackson Hole meeting that the "time for rate cuts has come," partly reflecting the fact that "the downside risks to employment have increased." Interest rate futures now imply that the central bank will cut policy rates by 100 basis points at the remaining three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year.
Grayscale Research believes that a sustained weak U.S. dollar and declining interest rates will be favorable for Bitcoin valuation. Lower U.S. interest rates will weaken the competitive advantage of the U.S. dollar and may benefit Bitcoin. Ethereum performed poorly in the early August decline, as an excess of speculative positions led to a significant pullback in Ethereum prices and limited subsequent price recovery. More fundamentally, the Ethereum network is undergoing significant changes, leading to uncertainty about its future for some investors. Ethereum intends to achieve greater scalability by moving more transactions to layer 2 networks, which will then settle regularly on the layer 1 mainnet. Grayscale Research believes that the current market's pessimism towards Ethereum is unfounded given that the scaling strategy is evidently working, but it may take some time for market consensus to become more positive.
Market Trends
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