On the evening of September 3, Beijing time, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US manufacturing PMI for August was 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 but higher than the previous value. The new orders index for US manufacturing in August dropped to 44.6, significantly lower than the previous value of 47.4, marking the lowest level since May 2023. Analysts pointed out that the overall trend still indicates a sluggish US manufacturing activity, sparking concerns about a US economic recession.

The US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.51%, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping by 3.26%, and the S&P 500 declining by 2.12%. Nvidia plummeted by over 9.53%, while the other six leading stocks all fell by 1% to 4%. The most worrying aspect is that the previous warnings about the US stock market avoiding a replication of the 2008 economic crisis if it breaks the previous high, otherwise there is a risk of a downward "M" pattern, which may also affect the trend of Bitcoin. Yesterday's sharp decline indicates a false breakthrough of the "M" pattern for the Dow Jones, but of course, we still need to wait for the weekly confirmation. The Nasdaq and S&P themselves rebounded weaker than the Dow, and there is a higher probability of a decline in the week before and after the interest rate cut.

International crude oil prices also suffered a heavy setback, with the US WTI crude oil futures price plummeting by 4% to $70.5 per barrel, and Brent crude oil falling below $75 per barrel, dropping by 4.5% intraday. On the news front, the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya stated that various factions are close to reaching an agreement, which may lead to a recovery in oil production.

Bitcoin
There is no hope before the interest rate cut, and it is uncertain whether it can play the role of digital gold after the interest rate cut. There is a certain probability that if the current trend of the US stock market replicates the 2008 economic crisis, even a 20% decline will cause a global financial earthquake. Can Bitcoin escape unscathed? However, from a long-term perspective, a high-level global financial decline combined with the easing of the beautiful country's interest rates is beneficial for the future of Bitcoin, as there are not many reservoirs that can accommodate such a large amount of funds.

Returning to the candlestick chart, the new moon opened below the bottom of the pillar, the weekly chart engulfed, and the daily chart showed a double negative with a positive in between. Yesterday, we still expected a rebound to touch 61500-62000, and even a small probability of completing an ascending flag pattern and then falling to find a short opportunity, but now it seems that the situation is not optimistic at all.

Currently, it still relies on the support range of 56000-57600. If it falls below this range, testing the support of 49000-50000 directly without any effective support at 54000 and 53000. Several opportunities for bottom fishing were previously mentioned.
Support:
Resistance:

Ethereum
The daily chart also shows a double negative with a positive in between, continuing to break through the bottom, and there is no effective support below. We need to look for the bottom support, even as low as the level starting with 1 as previously mentioned.

The three supports at 2392 on the 4-hour chart were broken, reaching a low of 2306 at the time of writing, and it is not ruled out that it will directly test the bottom support today.
Support:
Resistance:

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