"Five Major Crises and Three Responses in the Coin Circle"
There has been a strong sense of crisis recently, unrelated to the market, just some long-term thinking.
- Crisis of BTC
As a national reserve, some people say that it is a good thing; but I think it may bring a heavy blow.
For example, if the Persian region is sanctioned, all CEXs have to comply, including clearing out users, stopping deposits and withdrawals, and all funds involved will be traced in a chain, which can easily be targeted by the United States.
Whether it's mining or reserves in Russia, it will actually lead to more "bitcoins" entering the sanction chain, which will directly bring trouble to the future compliance of exchanges, and indirectly bring a sense of crisis to the coin circle.
If Harris comes to power, it should be rough, after all, even OPENSEA is already half dead and has received a notice from WELLS. If he really comes to power, all exchanges should be careful.
- Crisis of Altcoins
This has been talked about a lot, only infrastructure, only selling coins, no applications, no users, in three sentences: the scale of selling coins; the groupization of mining coins; the bankruptcy of speculating coins.
- Crisis of US stocks
The AI narrative of tech stocks has been overdrawn too much, similar to the large-scale infrastructure investment in the coin circle. Don't think too highly of the world, everything is just a grassroots organization, and the rules will not change.
When you go out, you will have to pay it back sooner or later. The future profits that have been overdrawn are already reflected in the PE, the risk is not whether it will come, but when it will come.
- Impact of AI
The short-term risk of US stocks does not affect the long-term grandeur of AI.
In the coin circle for 15 years, the most difficult question to answer is: what have we achieved?
The concept of blockchain and decentralization has been charming for a long time in the past, and we are also quite proud to be in it.
But, I don't know if you feel the same as me, feeling that the narrative of AI is much more powerful than ours—from the direction of funds, it is indeed so.
Good times don't last long. When everyone is bullish on Bitcoin, when our last psychological defense line is that the cost price of miners determines that miners will not sell coins, it seems a bit tragic.
This kind of tragic feeling has appeared when we rushed to some top MEME declines.
- Division of Interests
All narratives will ultimately be implemented in interests, from small to large:
Look at the current 400 L2s, they all have innovations, each has its own merits, they are all different, but one thing is the same—they all want to sell coins to users.
After the coins are issued, the coins are sold, and the follow-up is to enter the "rhythm that everyone understands."
The above is at a small level, what about at a larger level?
Coins like SOL, aren't they also? VCs hold a huge amount of low-priced chips, which cannot be directly smashed, but they can manipulate the market with MEME. Looking at the K-line, after dropping from over 200, there were several straight downward smashes, it's difficult for retail investors to smash so much, but retail investors can slowly buy back—however, every time it drops, retail investors will find it difficult to make money, and in the end, they won't buy anymore.
What about ETH? After switching to POS, large holders' zero-cost chips keep coming out, after staking tens of thousands of coins, Sun can freely sell tens of thousands of coins for a year, which is quite comfortable for his scale, and other large holders are similar, they don't need to do anything, just keep selling.
Without big players to manipulate the market, or the willingness to do so, innovation is gone, users are gone, what to do? You can see how those projects that raised millions before issuing coins and had millions of users before issuing coins are doing after issuing coins.
In fact, there is no fundamental difference.
So what to do? Feasible approaches are:
- The coin circle will not die, but there will be labor pains, and labor pains will bring about rebirth.
Hold BTC that you will never sell, for example, 10-20%.
Allocate 50% to USDT, and take action when the world encounters a black swan event.
Allocate 30% to US stocks, first buy funds with an annualized return of around 5%, and can sell to buy the dips of Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla at any time.
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