US Stocks [Is September historically the worst-performing month for risk assets?]

This week, the three major indices set new historical highs. The market will be closed on Monday next week and will reopen on Tuesday, marking the beginning of September, a month that is generally unfavorable for risk assets. Many people have already started to panic and spread FUD messages everywhere. There is no need to panic, as being overly cautious often leads to mistakes.

I have just recovered from the excitement of July and August. Two months ago, when I shared my analysis, I mentioned that historically July is the best-performing month for US stocks. This certainly influenced my emotional state, and as everyone knows, July this year was terrible, marking the worst July performance in the past decade. Upon careful reflection, I have come to realize that historical data is only a phenomenon, not the essence.

Whether it's individual stocks, the overall market, or BTC, asset prices are influenced by many factors, and it is not wise to base future trends on a single point.

I have also made such mistakes. September is a weak month for risk assets, but perhaps due to the significant volatility in August, the market has already digested much of the anxiety. Compared to July and August, I believe that the volatility in September will continue to shrink. There is a high probability that the three major US stock indices will reach new highs in a stable market sentiment before the official interest rate hike, possibly as early as next week or the following week.

As for BTC, I remain optimistic. At least before the interest rate hike, many market data points are favorable for the overall direction of BTC, such as ETF holdings, exchange BTC inventory, the number of large BTC wallet addresses, and mining costs. The BTC spot market in Germany, China, and the United States has already seen most of the expected developments. As long as market risk appetite and M2 increase, BTC is likely to trend upwards.

Which US stock targets will benefit from the rise in BTC prices? $coin, $mara, $mstr, the three giants in the crypto stock market, are still worth holding. However, I recently converted all my coin positions into mstx (1.75 times long on mstr's ETF).

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