Preface: Investment involves risks, please proceed with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, and your readership is welcome!
Time of writing: 15:47, August 30th, Beijing time
Market Information
The net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $1.7714 million yesterday, with a net asset ratio of 2.3%.
The US House of Representatives plans to hold multiple cryptocurrency hearings in September to discuss issues such as DeFi and SEC enforcement.
Bloomberg: Australia leads the world in the growth of cryptocurrency ATMs.
Elon Musk wins the lawsuit alleging that he manipulated Dogecoin and engaged in insider trading. (Watcher.Guru)
Trump will announce plans to make the United States the "global capital of cryptocurrency."
Market Review
As we approach September, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 19th is expected to result in a rate cut, which will undoubtedly impact the market and lead to varying degrees of volatility. We all know that a rate hike is bearish, while a rate cut is bullish. However, we should also note that this rate cut is the first of its kind and may be a decision made to reduce the potential risk of economic recession in the United States before an actual recession occurs. Therefore, a rate cut may not necessarily lead to an immediate rise; on the contrary, it may result in a deeper decline. Please be mindful of this and avoid blindly going long. For a more detailed understanding of the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on the market, you can contact the author or refer to relevant articles on major platforms. Here, we won't delve into it further. I remind everyone to be cautious and not blindly go long.
The overall trend in August was volatile, with Bitcoin reaching a high of 65,000 before pulling back after breaking through 62,000. The current price is around 59,400. Ethereum rebounded to a high of 2820, failing to even reach the 2870 resistance level. The trend for Ethereum is weak, with the current price around 2529. In September, there will be the interest rate meeting, as well as multiple cryptocurrency hearings on the 10th, 18th, and 23rd, which will likely have a greater impact on the market compared to August. August was characterized by overall volatility. Let's conduct a simple directional analysis based on the market situation for reference.
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin experienced volatility when it failed to break through 62,000 and was influenced by some news, breaking through to 65,000. However, it did not break through 65,000 and after two days of weekend volatility, it experienced a small acceleration in the downward trend. Currently, the overall trend indicates that there is still some room for Bitcoin to fall. The low points of Bitcoin on the daily chart continue to refresh, and the high points are also continuously moving lower, indicating that Bitcoin is still relatively weak, just moving slowly for now. It is expected that this wave of decline for Bitcoin will not be complete until it reaches the 55,100-52,400 range. If the bears gain strength, it may even fall below the short-term low of 49,000, potentially dropping to 44,000-40,000. We only need to be aware of these key points. It will take some time for the market to break through these levels, so we should observe while it progresses. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on short positions at 62,000-63,000, with the target range being 55,100-52,400. After reaching this range, pay attention to the support situation below before making further decisions. Exercise caution when entering the market for short-term trading and manage risks independently.
ETH:
Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum's trend is weak. The previous decline was much greater than Bitcoin's, and the rebound momentum is also weaker than Bitcoin's. The previous resistance level of 2870 was not reached, only approaching it before starting to decline. It is not suitable to go long on Ethereum at the moment. The downward trend is expected to continue, and the previous low point of 2111 is unlikely to hold. There is a high chance of further breaking through 2111, which would lead to a drop to 1500. Pay attention to the downward breakthrough for Ethereum in the future. The recommended entry point is around 2700, with the target range being 2380-2260. After reaching this range, pay attention to the breakthrough of 2111 before making further decisions. Exercise caution when entering the market for short-term trading and manage risks independently.
In summary:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently experiencing a decline after being under upward pressure, with room for further decline. Please be mindful of your current positions.
This article is time-sensitive. Please be aware of the risks. The above are personal suggestions and are for reference only!
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Buddhist saying: "Impermanence" is the norm of life. Here, "impermanence" refers to uncertainty and unpredictability. Everything that causes us pain is due to excessive pursuit of certainty, such as love, family, work, and friendship. Therefore, investment is based on the ability to defend and attack, using limited funds to amplify potential gains infinitely, rather than constantly being on the defensive, using 1000 units to make 20% annually, losing sleep and hair over 200 units in a year. In short, use a limited amount of money that does not affect your quality of life to do something that, once successful, could change your destiny or improve your life. Defense is only to prevent things from getting worse, while offense can make things better than they are now.
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