Today, I was chatting with @blockchenn, and I suddenly came up with an interesting metaphor - the "supermarket receipt lottery" theory.

This is actually a very traditional psychological scam that many people have encountered. For example, when you go shopping at a supermarket, the cashier will tell you that you can go to the jewelry store at the entrance with your receipt to participate in a lottery.

As a result, you casually draw a ticket and unexpectedly win the second prize. With the second prize, you can buy a pearl necklace worth 2000 yuan for only 200 yuan. People around you are also amazed and exclaim, "Wow, how lucky you are!"

In fact, the lottery box only contains second prizes, and anyone, even a dog, can win the second prize, which is just a 20 yuan item from Yiwu, allowing the merchant to easily profit 180 yuan from you.

But as a customer, you will feel lucky to have the opportunity to win a bargain, and you will feel psychologically satisfied.

In fact:

(1) You think you have met the threshold (spending a certain amount to qualify), but in reality, you haven't paid anything (it still falls into the category of easily obtainable resources). I have always had a point of view that easily obtainable resources are not real resources.

(2) Because you *overly focus* on being lucky, you naturally *actively ignore* whether it is a scam.

So, why talk about this? 😂 The psychology of the "supermarket receipt lottery" is a major problem in the Crypto world - *primary investment*.

Originally, primary investment has some methodology. But overall, it is still similar to "winning the lottery," after all, entrepreneurship is always a risky endeavor.

However, when many people are in the midst of it, their vigilance is greatly dulled. They may come into contact with some projects, thinking it's like winning the "supermarket receipt lottery," but mistakenly believe it's like winning the lottery.

For example: this founder was a high-level executive at a certain internet giant, that team previously participated in a successful project, and another advisor is a core member of a certain CEX…

Of course, these are all positive boosts, not negatives. What I mean is that these things may not be the decisive factors for the success or failure of a project.

When you actually encounter the financing deck of these project parties:

You think you have made an effort, such as attending some industry summits or being introduced by a friend of a friend, but in reality, these are easily obtainable resources.

As a result, you may *overly focus* on your luck itself:

——Oh, I'm so lucky to encounter a team with such a good background "so early."

And *actively ignore* other factors:

——Is the idea reliable, does it have product or media capabilities, how is the track, does the team have perseverance…

Then, thinking "investing in a project is investing in people!" and then, with a relaxed mind, the money slips into the pockets of a team with a high probability of slow death. Finally, it could be as fast as one or two years, or as slow as two or three years, and the team really Soft Rugs.

I wrote this:

Not to say that you can't invest in the lottery.

You can invest in the lottery, knowing its odds, and at most, make a small bet of 2 yuan;

Not to say that you can't make heavy bets.

You can make heavy bets, knowing its weight, and you will demand a high winning rate.

However, if something fundamentally has the odds of a lottery, and you mistakenly believe it has a high winning rate and angrily invest 200 yuan, then that is your lack of rationality.

You must know: it is extremely difficult to actually win the "supermarket receipt lottery".

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