Continue to follow the Pavel Durov incident
According to a statement released by the Paris Judicial Court, Pavel Durov faces charges of providing unauthorized "cryptography" services and tools. Currently, Pavel Durov is being questioned and he may be detained until August 28th. According to the Polymarket website, the probability of his release in August is 26%.
Will the interest rate cut lead to a rise in the cryptocurrency market?
An analysis of the reasons for this recent rise: first and foremost, it is undoubtedly due to the epic turnaround speech by Powell last Friday.
The Wall Street Journal's assessment of Powell's speech is "the strongest interest rate cut signal to date"
This speech removed all the previous ambiguous wording such as "wait and see," "wait a little longer," "gradual," and "methodical." The market believes that his intention is to stop the guessing game and officially start the interest rate cut cycle!
One key point is: the current trend
At the moment, it doesn't seem like a recession is imminent. The recession has not truly arrived yet, and indicators such as the unemployment rate and non-farm data are still within manageable ranges. There is no substantial evidence of a recession on the surface, and from Powell's speech, the market is being guided to believe so by the Federal Reserve.
The second key point is the U.S. presidential election and Trump's re-election.
In summary: the expectations for a fourth-quarter easing continue to strengthen, the recession has not arrived yet, so there is no need to worry about a major decline. Finally, there is Trump's narrative. In the medium to long term, with the increasing expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the possibility of a weaker dollar, the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a hedge and store of value still exists.
Many institutions have even stated that this year's meeting is equivalent to an interest rate cut. The market's reaction also confirms this point, so the only suspense in September is whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points!
Seize the opportunity to make money!
Over the weekend, various AI, public chains, MEME, DEFI, as well as projects in the ecosystems of Solana, ETH, Tron, and BNB all took off, and their gains were not insignificant, generally ranging from 20% to 30%.
The market has indeed improved as I previously mentioned.
Several positive expectations:
For example, CZ is about to be released from prison, and this can be seen from the return of activity in the Binance market last week. Various market makers and manipulators have started to work, and the listings on Binance have become more frequent, with several new altcoins appearing almost every day;
Another example is that meme launching platforms on the chain are starting to shift to multiple chains, and Tron and BNB are currently very popular. Next, they will move to smaller public chains, and this heat should not last too long. Funds will then return to CEX and mainstream coin markets, and often a new round of narrative bull runs starts like this;
After breaking through the previous resistance level on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin failed to attack 65,000 twice and then entered a oscillation mode. Currently, the 4-hour chart is supported around 62,300-62,000.
With the end of August, the market has actually started, and the explosive market in Q4 is getting closer and closer. Just hold onto your chips and wait patiently.
In terms of altcoins, memes are leading the way, and then pay more attention to the Bitcoin ecosystem, especially after the launch of Fractal. I believe there will be many opportunities, which will drive the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The altcoin season is about to begin, and the best opportunity to make money in this bull market is right in front of us. Whether you can achieve asset migration depends on whether you can seize it.
Follow me and let's welcome the super bull market together!!!
In the cryptocurrency industry, if you want to seize the opportunity of the next bull market, you need to have a high-quality circle, where everyone can huddle together, maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around in confusion, and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
If you want to huddle together or have any doubts, feel free to join us - WeChat Official Account: Youth with Coins
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