How to estimate the value of $ME?
Author: Cookie
Just last night, the NFT market Magic Eden finally announced its token $ME.
There is no doubt that $ME will be the most anticipated and rewarding airdrop for NFT players in recent times. So, what data can allow us to explore the value of our "Magic Eden Diamonds"? In today's extremely weak NFT market, what are the reasons for us to have expectations for Magic Eden?
When will the airdrop arrive?
Magic Eden's official Twitter account once posted a tweet in May, stating that "the wallet token claiming product will arrive at the end of the third quarter." This also aligns with the statement in the screenshot above announcing $ME, which will be claimed in the Magic Eden wallet.
If we look back at Magic Eden's official tweets, Magic Eden was officially launched on September 18, 2021 (with testing even earlier). So, will the $ME airdrop happen on September 18th of this year, which is the third anniversary of Magic Eden?
Price prediction?
In June of this year, Magic Eden announced that its NFT series "Magic Tickets" could be burned to exchange for "diamond" rewards.
Currently, the exchange of "diamonds" using Magic Tickets has ended. During the one-month period, the floor price of Magic Tickets remained stable at around 0.4 SOL, and the lowest level of Magic Tickets could be exchanged for 500 diamonds each. If we roughly estimate based on the price of $SOL at $140 per month, the cost of each "diamond" is $0.112.
However, after that, the farming activity for "diamonds" did not stop but continued, so the price of $0.112 is no longer an effective reference for us. The author chooses to quote the analysis of @crypto_laodong— the cost of diamonds is currently between $0.013 and $0.023.
Since there are currently no airdrop rules or tokenomics disclosure, it is difficult for us to predict the price of the upcoming airdrop. However, based on the author's observation in the foreign OTC market, it seems that foreigners are not very interested in trading Magic Eden "diamonds" off-exchange. Some sell orders only appeared a week ago, and the selling price is roughly between $0.04 and $0.05 per "diamond".
Will it be a "big deal"?
Considering the current bleak NFT market, it is difficult to say whether Magic Eden will be a "big deal". The best reference for us is naturally Blur + Blast, with a combined FDV of less than $2 billion. It is not only appropriate to use Blur as a reference for Magic Eden because Magic Eden has already launched its own wallet "Magic Eden Wallet," which indicates the intention to build a comprehensive chain application ecosystem. Therefore, it is more appropriate to include the value of Blast.
Furthermore, Magic Eden is currently the number one NFT market, and theoretically, its FDV should be higher than Blur + Blast. However, the time left until the predicted token issuance date is very short, possibly less than a month. In such a short time, the author does not believe that the NFT market will see any major news to ignite everyone's enthusiasm, so even if it is higher than Blur + Blast, it may not be significantly higher.
However, Magic Eden naturally has its advantages. Firstly, Magic Eden is currently the most active and profitable NFT market. In the past 30 days, the number of active users on Magic Eden is only 2,000 less than OpenSea.
Looking at the active user distribution on various chains, Magic Eden occupies the "most active now" Solana and the "most promising future" Bitcoin.
In the past 30 days, the number of active NFT players on Solana is the highest. Although Polygon looks impressive, it has a lot of "wash trading." In simple terms, there may not have been an impressive Polygon NFT project, and it has been a long time since a widely spread new ETH NFT project. Former NFT players, in terms of rushing into new projects, are mainly on Solana and Bitcoin.
In the past 30 days, Magic Eden's revenue is also the highest, reaching $1.8 million, far ahead of OpenSea and Tensor.
Although Magic Eden is challenged by Tensor in its "hometown" Solana, the two are basically evenly matched, and Magic Eden's user base forms a "barbell structure" in Solana + Bitcoin. In the Bitcoin ecosystem, Magic Eden currently occupies the leading position in rune trading. Therefore, if runes experience a breakthrough in the future and Magic Eden's rune swap function goes online, they are expected to gain more in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
But will this raise the market value of $ME at the time of issuance, especially in the current stage when runes and the Ordinals ecosystem have not yet fully developed? The author is not very optimistic.
Conclusion
In any case, the airdrop of Magic Eden is undoubtedly exciting for NFT players, after all, it's like a long-awaited rain after a drought. Moreover, recalling the high "account opening fee" paid to OpenSea at that time, there is even more reason to look forward to and support the bear market welfare provided by Magic Eden.
Just hope that this "big deal" can be even bigger, and even bigger…
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