1. The main narrative of this bull market has not been apparent so far. Could you briefly describe the main narrative of this round?

When the Bitcoin ecosystem began to flourish last year, I thought that the next major theme driving the bull market would be the Bitcoin ecosystem.

However, after the initial hype, there was no disruptive application within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Instead, there was a plethora of infrastructure projects and repetitive DeFi and NFT projects similar to Ethereum. In my opinion, infrastructure and repetitive applications cannot directly drive the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem, let alone become the main narrative of the next bull market.

As for Ethereum, apart from numerous emerging layer-two scaling solutions, there has been no innovation in applications.

Whether it's the endless stream of meme coins or the emergence of DeFi, gaming, or social applications on layer-two scaling, they are essentially a continuation of the narrative from the previous bull market. Although there are some minor innovations in content and gameplay, there is no fundamental difference in the scenarios. Some highly anticipated applications have not yet attracted a large number of new users.

If there must be any new application scenarios, the so-called "AI + blockchain" and "DePIN" barely qualify. But regarding these two tracks, I have previously shared my views: the vast majority of projects in these areas are essentially traditional projects with a new facade, many of which appeared as early as the ICO era in 2017 but have since seen little success.

So far, I also cannot see which direction or ecosystem will become the main narrative of the next bull market.

This is also something I have recently felt regretful about— if this situation continues to develop, even if we enter a bull market, it will be one without its own main narrative, relying solely on external funds to drive it.

Such a bull market will not go far or be strong.

2. This round of altcoin market has experienced significant declines, constantly breaking previous lows. Will there be another altcoin season?

I believe that if we enter a bull market, most altcoins may not necessarily surpass their previous highs. At most, only altcoins with strong fundamentals or compelling narratives may trend upwards and even break previous highs, while other altcoins may never see the light of day.

3. Has the United States entered an economic recession? Analysis of the U.S. presidential election?

I cannot personally analyze whether the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

However, I believe that even if the U.S. economy does enter a recession, it will not have a significant impact on investors in U.S. stocks and crypto assets in the long term.

The so-called economic recession in the United States is actually a normal economic cycle of capitalism, much like a natural law. Since it is normal, there is nothing to fear about a recession, and more importantly, it is inevitable that it will once again usher in prosperity in the future.

So even if it happens, I do not view it with pessimism.

This reminds me of some of my feelings while reading Buffett's books recently: it has given me a deeper understanding of the underlying reasons why the old man has been able to stand tall in the U.S. stock market for 70 years, weathering bull and bear markets and crossing cycles.

In these books (Buffett's letters to shareholders and transcripts of his Q&A sessions at shareholder meetings), the old man always says that he believes:

• The stock prices of good U.S. companies will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of the stocks, so there is no need to fear a significant drop in stock prices;
• The intrinsic value of good U.S. companies will inevitably continue to rise through cycles.

The old man has explicitly mentioned twice why he always believes in these two points, and the fundamental reason is that he believes in the two fundamental pillars of the U.S. economy:

The rule of law and the market economy

With these two pillars, he firmly believes that the long-term destiny of the United States is always upward.

Therefore, he is not afraid of the recession and depression of the U.S. economy, nor does he revel in the prosperity and bubbles of the financial markets.

As a result, he always focuses primarily on the U.S. stock market and genuinely loves the country that has brought him immense wealth throughout his life.

The old man once said two things (in essence):

He said that if he were born in certain countries like Bangladesh, his luck would not have been so good; He also said that what worried him most when investing in PetroChina was that a country where laws can change at any time would bring him uncontrollable risks.

Therefore, from the perspective of financial investment alone, an economic recession in the United States is not frightening. Instead, it is a good opportunity for people like Buffett to pick up bargains.

The U.S. presidential election is also a very interesting topic.

Previously, when Trump was up against Biden, I thought Trump had a very high chance of winning. But now, with Trump up against Harris, the final outcome is still uncertain.

In my view, a crucial factor here is whether Harris's policies are too left-leaning. If they are, her chances of winning may be slightly diminished; if she adjusts her position slightly, tries to take a more moderate approach, and convinces the American people that her adjustments are not just for the sake of the election, then her chances of winning may surpass Trump's.

Let's wait until the end of the year to see how the American people decide on their next four years.

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