1. Is the Kondratieff Cycle considered a cyclical trend?

In recent years, the Kondratieff Cycle has been frequently mentioned, describing a cyclical pattern of economic development. This pattern is measured over several decades.

I remember the first time I heard about the Kondratieff Cycle was at a private offline sharing session in 2018. At that time, the so-called "renowned teacher" at the event talked about how we were about to enter the downward phase of the Kondratieff Cycle, and a great depression was imminent. He then earnestly began describing various "declines" he anticipated.

Subsequent developments proved that while his predictions about real estate and economic trends in our country came true, they did not materialize in some other developed countries. What's more, the exception was that the crypto world actually experienced a magnificent bull market in the following years.

Since then, I have been cautious about this theory.

I believe that the utility of this theory has greatly diminished today.

The Kondratieff Cycle was summarized by a Russian economist in 1926. There are two significant differences between that era and today that I believe are worth noting:

First, the degree and scale of globalization back then were far less profound and extensive compared to today. Despite the current trend of deglobalization in various countries and regions, global communication and connectivity through the internet still persist, connecting individuals from all corners of the world.

Second, the economic cycles exhibited by different countries today are not entirely synchronized and may even be completely opposite. For example, in recent years, the economic development in our country has shown a distinctly different rhythm from that of certain developed countries.

Third, the pace of technological development, application, and popularization back then was not as rapid as it is today. Now, we encounter a major technological revolution almost every decade, each bringing new business models, application scenarios, and opportunities, leading us into a tech-driven new cycle. This cycle is shorter and more frequent than the Kondratieff Cycle.

These three characteristics have greatly changed many of the norms in our society, economy, and finance. In today's era, I believe it is entirely possible for us to break free from the influence of this cyclical law on individuals.

Firstly, today, we (especially investors) can strategically position ourselves globally (especially in global assets and collaborations) in a globalized environment, leveraging the asynchrony of economic cycles between countries, breaking through national boundaries, avoiding economic downturns in one country, and capitalizing on upturns in other countries, striving to maintain a favorable position and freeing ourselves from the constraints of the Kondratieff Cycle.

For example, our current investment in crypto assets is a form of globalized positioning and collaboration, leveraging the dividends of the global market, allowing us to thrive even in unfavorable geographical environments. Additionally, by investing in stocks and assets in different countries, we can seize the dividends of different regions and hedge against the risks we face.

All of these actions serve to eliminate the adverse effects of the Kondratieff Cycle on us.

Therefore, in today's era, I believe what's more important is not which phase of the Kondratieff Cycle we are currently in, but whether we have the ability to have a global perspective and strategically position ourselves globally.

2. Since the last event, CRV has been oscillating at the bottom, and from the market perspective, it seems to have found support. How do you view CRV now?

In my previous detailed article about CRV, I mentioned that the price of CRV could very well rise in the future when the bull market arrives and various sectors rotate upwards, potentially reaching a decent price.

However, this was not a factor I considered when selling at the time.

During a recent online discussion, I shared a viewpoint: I hope that the projects I participate in are ones that I don't have to worry about their operations even when I'm asleep.

So, what kind of projects possess this characteristic?

For the vast majority of projects, the most important factor is that their teams do not require my concern; they are always diligently and wholeheartedly dedicated to building the project.

With such a team leading the project, even if the project's token price temporarily languishes or encounters difficulties, it's not a problem. But if the team does not possess such qualities, even if the price is expected to rise, it would still worry me—I would worry that the rise may not be sustainable, and at any moment, the team might suddenly encounter some issue, leaving me with no time to react.

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