Why did the market crash despite positive macro indicators?

The U.S. retail sales rate for July, known as "terrifying data," recorded a 1% increase, far exceeding expectations. Initial jobless claims last week were slightly lower than expected, dropping to the lowest level since July. With the crisis of recession temporarily on hold, the market's attention has shifted to the September interest rate cut.

Is it really so difficult to speculate on coins now? Positive news doesn't drive up the market, negative news causes a sharp drop. Conflict in the Middle East leads to a drop, Ukraine's counterattack leads to a drop, Japan's interest rate hike leads to a drop, the economy doing too well leads to a drop, and the economy doing poorly also leads to a drop. It's impossible to play with altcoins, and pump-and-dump schemes are being exploited again.

Is the only way for the cryptocurrency circle to rely on interest rate cuts?

For a market recovery, we can only be more patient and wait.

Market Analysis

BTC:

Bitcoin rebounded throughout the day yesterday, rising to near the second resistance level I provided at around 59750 before starting to plummet, directly hitting the third support level I provided near 56000.

Currently, on the hourly level, it is rebounding. Pay attention to the resistance levels near 58375–58810–59230 above. If the rebound fails to break through the support level of 57550 below, the hourly level rebound will fail, and the market will turn bearish. Pay attention to the support levels near 56740–56000–54680 below!

ETH:

On the other hand, Ethereum, this garbage, fell after rising to near the first resistance level yesterday, directly dropping to the previous low support area where the daily line was inserted.

Currently, on the hourly level, it is rebounding. Pay attention to the resistance levels near 2600–2623–2660 above. If the rebound fails to break through the support level of 2568 below, the hourly level rebound will fail, and the market will turn bearish. Pay attention to the support levels near 2541–2505–2475 below!

I've been bearish for the past few days, and everything is as expected.

For someone like me who mainly trades spot, when there's no market, it's good to relax a bit. I don't have an addiction to contracts, so I can open or not open them. If the secondary market is not doing well, let's play in the tertiary market together, brothers!

Will the Fed really cut interest rates in September? What will it face after the rate cut!?

1. After the rate cut

Basic data globally will be relieved, which will release some pressure globally, which is a good thing. But I don't believe that U.S. capital will willingly do something good for the world.

2. After the rate cut

Especially if the rate cut happens in September this year, then after continuous rate cuts in November and December, the lower lending rates combined with the expectation of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will lead to the outflow of U.S. capital, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds. Capital seeks profit, and in a low-interest rate environment, it seeks to bottom-fish for low-priced assets globally. This is normal, but with a large amount of capital outflow, can the U.S. ensure the stability of its domestic economy and financial environment?

3. After the rate cut

With lower interest rates, the investment environment becomes more active, stimulating the economy, thereby significantly raising market expectations for the U.S. economy, U.S. economic data, and even U.S. stock earnings forecasts. The rate cut is like an ebb tide, which may reveal vulnerabilities after the tide recedes, and these issues may lead to the possibility of whether the economy can achieve a soft landing!

This wave of altcoin market is basically a general decline.

The altcoins that surged a few days ago, such as brc20, Rune, and BTCFI, have experienced relatively large pullbacks, such as sats, pizza, ords, ordi, dog, and others. In addition, there have been many pullbacks in projects related to liquidity staking protocols, such as rpl, rez, and pendle, with pullbacks generally exceeding 6%.

Only a few coins have shown market trends: For example, aave has risen against the trend by 7%. I analyzed that a buyback dividend may be coming, and as a leader in the lending track, aave will continue to gain trust over time. Regardless of whether it's the rise of Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other EVM public chains in the future, aave can be used immediately, with extremely strong value capture capabilities. Grayscale may also launch a trust for aave in the future.

Another coin that has performed well is MBL, a Binance observation list project. This is probably the last round of control before delisting, so there's no need to chase after it.

Follow me and let's welcome the super bull market together!!!

In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the opportunity of the next bull market, you need to have a high-quality circle, where everyone can huddle together for warmth and maintain insight. If you're alone, looking around in confusion, and finding no one, it's actually very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to huddle together for warmth or have any doubts, feel free to join us—WeChat public account: Youth with Coins.

Thank you for reading. If you like it, please give it a thumbs up and follow us. See you next time!

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