One of our readers asked the following question in a comment. Since the original question is quite long, I have divided it into two paragraphs for us to study together:

Recently, I learned about a psychological effect called "confirmation bias," which means that when judging something, most people unconsciously seek factors that favor their own desires and ignore objective facts.

How can we overcome external factors in investment to avoid falling into this situation? What are the methods, such as seeking opposing views or specific self-transformation?

This question is profound and sharp.

I am truly honored that the reader trusts me enough to ask such a question. Although I may not be able to answer this question, I am willing to share some thoughts on this matter.

First, I believe that this "confirmation bias" is probably inherent in human nature and is something that the vast majority of investors will encounter in the early stages.

However, in the process of advancement, at least two forks will appear:

The first: Can one recognize that they have fallen into "confirmation bias"?

The second: Even if one can recognize it, can they overcome or at least suppress this "confirmation bias" and ultimately achieve self-transformation?

Whether one can cross these two forks determines whether the investor's level can be improved and even stand out. If one cannot cross either of these forks, self-transformation is out of the question.

Let's first look at the first point, whether we can recognize that we have fallen into "confirmation bias."

Let's start with an example familiar to all of us:

How did we perceive Bitcoin?

I believe that the vast majority of readers, like me, initially thought it was "pyramid scheme," "nonsense," and "fraud" when they first heard about Bitcoin.

The reason is simple: something without any "value" or "credibility" being sold for money, isn't that a scam?

When we make such judgments, our thought process must be based on our existing knowledge and established beliefs.

But at that time, we definitely did not do one thing: that is, to seriously search for information online, to see what Bitcoin really is, and to read the Bitcoin white paper word by word!

What did we experience next?

For me, I was initially "impressed" by the surge in cryptocurrency.

Although I am not someone who easily changes my perception based on price fluctuations, this rapid rise did stir up a bit of my remaining curiosity, prompting me to take a closer look at what it really is. This led me to read the Bitcoin white paper, the source code of Bitcoin, and a series of information about Ethereum.

After studying this information, my perception underwent a huge change—I realized that I had been foolish, and Bitcoin is definitely not a pyramid scheme, let alone a fraud.

Looking back now, what allowed me to cross the first fork in understanding Bitcoin?

I think it was a little bit of curiosity and the act of seeking the truth of things, or more simply put, curiosity and verification—these two key elements.

Here, I want to emphasize that verification means finding first-hand information and the truth, not hearsay or following the crowd.

Furthermore, I believe that in this process, if I had only changed my mind because of being "impressed," I would have only seen Bitcoin as a speculative asset, without the subsequent process of verification. Without the subsequent process of verification, I would not have had a firm belief in it or the determination to hold onto it, and I would not have been able to remain steadfast in my optimism during downturns.

So, being "impressed" was just an opportunity, not the key to crossing the first fork.

Now, let's look at the second fork: even if one can recognize the presence of "confirmation bias," can they overcome or at least suppress this "confirmation bias" and ultimately achieve self-transformation?

In fact, even after recognizing the presence of "confirmation bias," many people, including myself, still feel very distressed. This is because at that point, "rebellious" perceptions have already begun to emerge in our minds.

This is a serious matter because it can easily cause regret.

For those who hold such perceptions, they will feel very lonely, unable to communicate with anyone around them, not even those closest to them, who cannot understand or tolerate them.

And once these "rebellious" thoughts slip out, they can be blown out of proportion, and even if they are minor, they are considered deviant.

How many people living in the real world can live comfortably like this?

So, we can only silently keep these thoughts to ourselves, endure all the pain alone, and seek answers to all our questions on our own.

Many people cannot bear this loneliness and pain and therefore retreat. After all, for the vast majority of people, following the "herd mentality" and being psychologically comfortable, comforting, and safe is the most comfortable way.

It's too difficult to be a "rebel."

Furthermore, in terms of these "rebellious" thoughts themselves, they pose a significant challenge to our self-awareness, and their risks are also extremely high.

Because although we know that it is not at all as the public understands it, we also feel that it somewhat contradicts our own understanding, and even challenges our "common sense."

In this situation, not to mention having faith in its future, the probability of its failure is actually very high.

At this point, I believe that having an open and brave mindset is very important.

Openness allows us to at least not reject "heretical views," and bravery allows us to have the courage to engage with "heretical views"—this kind of courage does not require so-called "fearlessness," as long as we have the courage to take a step forward, reach out, and touch it.

If we can achieve the above, then the subsequent obstacles will be much smaller.

Reflecting on my own experience, my approach was simple: I used a portion of my funds that I could afford to lose to take a chance.

And since it was a gamble, I definitely would not settle for trivial gains, but rather hoped for it to become something extraordinary. So, I would not be overjoyed just because it rose by 20% or even doubled in value. I was willing to wait for it to transform from an ugly duckling into a swan, even if it went to zero during this process.

If it goes to zero, I will look for the next opportunity.

I believe that opportunities to change one's destiny are definitely forged through time and patience.

Therefore, I think the key to crossing the second fork lies in:

Getting used to loneliness and being misunderstood;

Exercising an open and brave mindset as much as possible;

Using funds that one can afford to lose to take a chance.

The above are just my personal insights and some immature thoughts on this issue, based on my limited experience.

I believe that investment is not just an event, but a process. And this process is not only a process of changing one's wealth, but also a process of personal growth and transformation.

I hope that all our readers can improve and elevate themselves in this process.

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