1. What are your views on the current real estate market?

I have been paying attention to real estate, but I am not a real estate expert. However, I think that professional knowledge is not necessary to judge the general trend, just common sense.

Recognizing this trend can at least allow us ordinary people to be more clear-headed and calm when preparing to invest a large amount of money in real estate, so as not to make mistakes that could ruin our lives.

I hold a very cautious attitude towards the current and future real estate market in mainland China. I believe that overall, it will continue to decline for a period of time, and ultimately, only a few first-tier cities and quasi-first-tier cities will be able to stabilize.

Among these cities where property prices may eventually stabilize, only properties in the core areas and core locations have hope, while other areas are generally average.

Finally, it is crucial for public confidence to be fully restored for the overall situation to improve. As for when confidence can be fully restored, I do not know.

2. In the investment market, "garbage time" is particularly vivid. Taking Bitcoin as an example, most of the gains are concentrated in a few months, and the increases within those months are concentrated in a few days. All the waiting is only for those crucial ten days.

I completely agree with this statement.

In addition, besides finding this statement accurate, I also think there is another important point that many people overlook, which is that we cannot accurately determine when these crucial months and the most important ten days begin and end.

Therefore, I emphasize repeatedly: for ordinary investors (excluding geniuses), do not try to guess where the bottom is or where the top is.

But if we cannot guess where the bottom and the top are, and we still want to capture this market cycle, what should we do?

Then we can only use a rough range to cover this "bottom" and "top" — this is the core of dollar-cost averaging and regular selling.

In fact, this is not only a principle in the crypto world, it is a universal principle in traditional investment as well.

Moreover, the deduction of this principle in traditional investment is much more brutal than in the crypto world.

What does this mean?

In the crypto ecosystem, at least so far, we have experienced several major bull and bear cycles with a 4-year cycle. In other words, in past market cycles, we basically only need to endure for 4 years to capture the crucial months and the key ten days.

In traditional investment markets, investors may need to wait for 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, or even longer to capture the crucial months and the key ten days.

Therefore, for ordinary people, if they are not willing to patiently wait even for the short 4-year cycle in the crypto ecosystem, I really can't see any other ecosystem that can offer such an opportunity.

So, being able to plan our wealth growth path in the crypto ecosystem with a 4-year cycle is truly a great stroke of luck and opportunity for every retail investor.

We must cherish it.

But will this 4-year cycle continue indefinitely?

I am very skeptical. I believe that it will eventually become ineffective, but I do not know when that will happen. That's why I always say that I will keep at least 20% of my position forever to guard against that day.

Because the transition of bull and bear cycles in traditional investment markets is so long, there are so many people obsessed with short-term trading.

Because many people do not want to wait, are unwilling to wait, and cannot afford to wait.

But what is the actual result?

Still, the vast majority of those engaged in short-term trading cannot accumulate wealth. This principle also applies in the crypto world.

Sometimes I think: one of the important factors in my many strokes of luck is that before entering the crypto ecosystem, I had already proven through practice in the traditional field that I am not suitable for short-term trading.

With this lesson, I can calmly reject the temptation of short-term trading and directly engage in medium to long-term investment when entering the crypto ecosystem.

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