Preface: Investment involves risks, please proceed with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, and your readership is welcome!
Time of writing: 16:45, August 10th, Beijing time
Market Information
The net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETF is 55.114 billion US dollars, with a cumulative net inflow of 17.338 billion US dollars.
The total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday was 89.7312 million US dollars, and the ETF net asset ratio reached 4.6%.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers opposes political interference in the Federal Reserve and expects a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
Morgan Asset Management: It is expected that the Bank of Japan will avoid raising interest rates again in the short term.
The U.S. SEC has issued subpoenas to at least three crypto venture capital firms, and the crackdown is intensifying.
Market Review
First of all, I would like to apologize to everyone for not updating in a timely manner due to personal reasons over the past half month. I hope everyone has made a lot of profit in the rebound after this downturn.
At the end of last month, we predicted that the market would experience a downturn. The target level was around 68,000, and the target range was 635-615. However, due to the impact of the overall market environment, such as the unexpected cold U.S. non-farm payroll data and the circuit breaker in Japan, the cryptocurrency market was affected, and Bitcoin also experienced a downturn. The lowest point of the downturn was around 49,000. Although we predicted the downturn, we did not anticipate such market impacts. From 68,000, the downturn was as much as 19,000 points, which was relatively rapid and caught many people off guard. Even those who made the most profit may have been bearish, failed to set a stop-loss, and then made a big profit. I hope that everyone did not incur significant losses during this downturn and made profits in the subsequent rebound.
Ethereum also experienced a downturn, with a lower drop than Bitcoin, directly falling to the 2111 level. We only expected it to reach around 2500 at most. If short positions were taken near 3280 and sold at 2500, there would have been a decent profit margin. The rebound of Ethereum was relatively weak, and there may not be a significant rebound opportunity in the future. The market still depends on Bitcoin's performance.
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin's decline was not significant, and it was not far from the previous high of 73,700. It has been oscillating at high levels, and the recent decline broke through the short-term low of 53,485, with the low point continuously refreshing. This indicates that the bearish sentiment in the market is still relatively strong. Although there are impacts from the news, we are only analyzing based on technical aspects. Currently, Bitcoin's rebound has not yet broken through the 200-day moving average, indicating pressure. The pressure points for this short-term rebound are around 62,000 and 65,500. If it fails to rebound after reaching around 62,000, it will likely start to decline. For those with long positions, pay attention to exiting. In the future, focus on the breakthrough at 62,000. If it breaks through and returns to around 62,000, it will likely be a retracement. Reaching 65,500 would be even better. In general, for short-term trading, there may be a small rebound, followed by a decline. Pay attention to the levels of 62,000 and 65,500, and manage your entry opportunities. Short-term trading, manage risks, and take responsibility for gains and losses.
ETH:
Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum's trend is weaker. After breaking through the previous support near 2860, it directly accelerated its decline, reaching a low of 2111. The subsequent rebound did not recover as much as Bitcoin did, and it did not even reach the 2860 level, indicating that Ethereum's overall upward momentum is weak. Ethereum is suitable for short positions. The upper resistance for Ethereum is near 2860, which was previously a strong support. After breaking through, it can also serve as strong resistance. It is also necessary to compare with Bitcoin's situation when it reaches 65,500 and observe the candlestick patterns. For short positions, manage your entry opportunities. It is recommended to consider short positions near 2860, and manage your entry opportunities. Short-term trading, manage risks, and take responsibility for gains and losses.
In summary:
The short-term rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum is nearing its end, and a new downturn is expected to begin soon.
This article is time-sensitive. Pay attention to the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!
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The most attractive part of a city is having the person you want to see, and the most attractive part of a market trend is having the money you want to earn.
A person's sense of boundaries is knowing what can be done, what cannot be done, knowing what one does not know, and knowing what one knows. This is the boundary. Not knowing what one knows, not knowing what one does not know, the sense of boundaries becomes blurred, leading to overestimation or underestimation of oneself, without an accurate self-assessment. With boundaries, try to do things that you can understand at a glance and can easily solve, just like trading. If you can't understand it at a glance and it doesn't fit the trading system, the longer you study, the more confused you become.
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