Global macro is extremely intricate so I usually refrain from having a view. Recently, there has been a lot of chatter around war, JPY carry trades, inflation, etc. However, I believe that one of the most important considerations for all market participants over the next year will be how our world will be able to avoid global recession driven by AI advancements leading to mass job displacement

Those that have been following the development of AI technologies know that progress is increasing at an exponential rate and so is its effect on the world. Already, AI has had a profound impact in the fields of customer service, warehousing, basic programming, etc

With the top AI research organizations on track to deliver reasoning capable LLMs in the next year you very soon have the majority of blue and white collar jobs at risk of being displaced by AI. Legal, writing, accounting, even AI research and trading. Companies like @Figure_robot will give AI a physical body and totally transform factories, home care, anything that relies on human physical labor.

Very short term that will be good for companies. They decrease their costs - for most companies humans are the biggest expense but the benefit to the bottom line can’t remain forever as this technological revolution spikes unemployment which crushes consumption. The only solution here is UBI but given the political divisiveness of the topic is unlikely to be deployed before we’re already in a recession. I’m not so sure our government will be able to quell these fears before they envelop the market, but I’ve been wrong before.

I hope AI can be good for humanity but we have many problems to solve while this ship is moving fast

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