Morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline, with BTC retracing over 12% and ETF plummeting nearly 24%. A large number of long positions were liquidated, spreading panic reminiscent of the situations on May 19 and March 12 in previous years. According to AICoin analysis, this plunge was mainly influenced by the following four factors.
1. Non-farm Payrolls Data Unexpectedly Cold (Primary Factor)
The non-farm payrolls data released by the United States on Friday unexpectedly showed an increase of only 114,000 jobs, causing the unemployment rate to climb to 4.3%, reaching a new high since December 2021. This triggered the "Sam Rule" (an economic recession prediction indicator). As a result, the US stock market experienced a significant decline, dragging down the cryptocurrency market.
The high unemployment rate has sparked concerns about a hard landing for the US economy. Some financial institutions have already adjusted their interest rate cut expectations, betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points in September.
2. Interest Rate Hike in Japan (Primary Factor)
On July 31, the Bank of Japan announced another interest rate hike, raising the policy interest rate to 0.25% and sending a strong hawkish signal. As a result, the Japanese stock market experienced three consecutive days of sharp declines, with both the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index and Japanese government bond futures triggering circuit breakers. At the same time, both the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index and the Nikkei 225, the two major benchmark indices, entered bear markets.
The change in Japan's interest rates has led to expectations of reduced demand for Japanese yen borrowing from the international market. Panic in the trillion-dollar arbitrage trading market has led to a general decline in global markets.
3. Jump Trading's Sell-off
Market maker Jump Trading liquidated some positions and sold $69.17 million worth of ETH in the past 48 hours. The institution's sell-off behavior, amid the shift from interest rate cut expectations to an economic recession turning point, further exacerbated market panic.
4. Net Outflow of ETFs Again
On Friday, there was another net outflow of spot BTC ETFs, amounting to $237 million, with Fidelity seeing outflows of over $100 million and ARK 21Shares seeing outflows of $87.7 million. At the same time, Grayscale continued to sell off its ETHE holdings, selling $61.43 million, with ETH ETFs experiencing a net outflow of $54.27 million on the same day.
For detailed data, see: https://www.aicoin.com/en/web3-etf/us-btc?lang=en
Current Market Situation
The market has intensified its divergence following the market's digestion of the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut in September last week:
- Bullish Narrative: US elections, monetary easing, ETF prospects
- Bearish Narrative: Pessimistic macroeconomic expectations, potential Mt. Gox selling pressure, geopolitical conflicts
Risk aversion sentiment has quickly escalated. Currently, BTC has crossed below the MA200 moving average on the daily chart and is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (point: 52,056). Similarly, ETH has experienced a significant retracement, briefly approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (point: 2069). 
There are no clear signals of a rebound in the market yet, and the panic sentiment continues.
Please continue to monitor the market trends…
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
