Daily Sharing
In yesterday's article, we anticipated the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through 65000 and reaching the 64500 level in the 15-minute timeframe, which has now been confirmed. However, unfortunately, after Bitcoin broke through 65000, it dropped to around 63800 without a quick rebound, indicating a tendency towards a 4-hour level retracement.
In last Wednesday's and last Friday's articles, we emphasized that the fifth wave of Bitcoin's 1-hour rebound should reach around 68000 to 69000, and then it might end the rebound and start a 4-hour retracement. We also mentioned the need to pay attention to whether the 1-hour rebound completes consolidation and continues to extend the 4-hour retracement.
From the current perspective, the probability of further extension upwards is not very high, and it seems to be in the process of running the retracement of the 4-hour level. For the 4-hour retracement, the support levels to watch below are around 62500 to 62000, and if it goes lower, around 61000.
Regarding the approximate position of the 4-hour retracement, we mentioned in the article on July 15th:
In the article on July 15th, it was mentioned that if Bitcoin breaks through 65500 and reaches around 69000, then the 4-hour retracement might retest above 62000. We should patiently wait for the completion of the retracement structure.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use the article as a reference only.
1H:
On the 1-hour timeframe, the yellow arrows in the image show the completion of the 5 waves, reaching a high of 68474, which basically meets our expectation for the fifth wave's 1-hour rebound to reach 68000 to 69000. Although yesterday we believed that Bitcoin would not fall below 63500 and might consolidate a center and continue to extend upwards, the 1-hour level has not ended, so 63500 should not hold, indicating that the 4-hour retracement is likely already in progress.
The current expectation is the first wave of the 4-hour retracement on the 1-hour timeframe, with attention to the support around 63000. It should stabilize and start the second wave of the 1-hour rebound tomorrow, with the second rebound focusing on around 66500. After that, there might be a third wave of the 1-hour decline, possibly ranging from 62000 to 63000. The overall 4-hour retracement is as indicated by the white arrows in the image.
Once the retracement indicated by the white arrows is completed, there will be a third wave of the 4-hour uptrend to break through 70000 and 72000, as indicated by the green arrows in the image.
15M:
On the 15-minute timeframe, due to the lack of divergence in the 15-minute decline after leaving the center, there should be another 15-minute decline after the short-term 15-minute rebound, with support around 63000. It is estimated that it will stabilize and start the second wave of the 1-hour rebound tomorrow. The resistance for the short-term 15-minute rebound is around 64800 to 65000.
ETH
The retracement of Ethereum is much larger than expected, underestimating the increased selling pressure in the short term after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF trading. The launch of the Ethereum spot ETF is a positive for the medium to long term, but it may bring short-term selling pressure. This includes the realization of short-term negatives brought about by the positive news and the selling by institutions such as Grayscale.
Currently, Ethereum is also running a 4-hour retracement, and the first wave of the 1-hour retracement has already reached around 3120, and the 1-hour decline has not ended yet, so the first wave of the 1-hour decline is likely to reach around 3050 to 3100. It is expected that it may stabilize in the afternoon or evening tomorrow and start the second wave of the 1-hour rebound, with resistance around 3250 to 3300. After that, the third wave of the 1-hour decline will depend on the support around 3000.
On the 15-minute timeframe, due to the lack of divergence in the 15-minute decline after leaving the center, there should be another 15-minute decline after the short-term 15-minute rebound, retesting around 3100. It is almost time for a short-term 15-minute rebound, with resistance around 3220 to 3250.
Trend Direction
Weekly timeframe: Upward, currently expecting a new upward trend on the weekly timeframe, with a target of over 100,000.
Daily timeframe: Upward, the first wave of the daily upward trend within the weekly uptrend, with a target of over 90000.
4-hour timeframe: Downward, currently considered to be in a 4-hour retracement, focusing on the range of 62000 to 63000.
1-hour timeframe: Downward, the 1-hour retracement is still extending downwards, and it is expected to start the 1-hour rebound in the afternoon to evening tomorrow.
15-minute timeframe: Downward, after the short-term 15-minute rebound, there should be another 15-minute decline.
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