- [Review] -
Omitted.
- [Today's Market Analysis] -
Old Liquor Trading Diary: Daily Interpretation 7.22
① Intraday ultra-short-term - Resistance: 68100
Before 68100, there is another small resistance at 67600. If the market struggles and comes to 68100, I think my short position can start to be laid out!
② Intraday ultra-short-term - Support: 66700
66200-66700 is currently a relatively strong support area on the short-term. If this area is effectively broken, the previous low generated last night is also not guaranteed. It is very likely to form a reversal again, forming the risk of a short-term pullback.
Summary: A phase small top may be coming. Countdown to alert.
- [Cryptocurrency News] -
Old Biden Withdraws from the U.S. Presidential Election! Old Trump bluntly says Harris is more likely to be defeated! Marx changed his profile picture to a laser eye!
Affected by Biden's announcement of the 2024 presidential election, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $68470, and the price of Ethereum also reached $3560. Solana also broke through $180, showing very strong performance.
The overall market for altcoins has seen a rebound, with the MEME sector performing the strongest, with Mew and TURBO both rising by more than 20%.
Next, let's take a look at some important news worth paying attention to.
First, Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election, stating that he will fully support Harris and obtain the Democratic Party's presidential candidate nomination. He stated on social media that he originally intended to seek re-election, but for the best interests of the Democratic Party and the United States, he decided to withdraw from the presidential race. He will focus on fulfilling his presidential duties during his term. After announcing his withdrawal, Biden stated that he will fully support and endorse Vice President Harris to obtain the Democratic Party's presidential candidate nomination.
Minutes after Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, Trump responded in a phone call with CNN, saying that so far, he is the worst president in the history of our country. Trump also stated that he believes Vice President Harris will be more easily defeated than Biden.
It can be seen that the U.S. presidential election will become an important driver of the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2024.
With Biden's withdrawal, Trump's election as president seems to be secure.
From July 25th to July 27th, Trump will attend the Bitcoin 2024 conference and deliver a speech, which may further boost market sentiment.
In addition, Musk has changed his Twitter profile picture to a Bitcoin laser eye. The market speculates that he may attend the Bitcoin conference held in Tennessee, USA this week, which is a major positive for the market.
Bloomberg analyst Vivek wrote that Trump is considering appointing Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, as the Secretary of the Treasury. If this comes true, the next U.S. government will be crypto-friendly.
Furthermore, a senior reporter at Bloomberg suggested that the new Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom sell the country's 61245 bitcoins to help rebuild the UK. Just after Germany finished selling, here comes the UK. It remains to be seen whether the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK will adopt his suggestion.
The Ethereum spot ETF will officially start trading on July 23rd, which may experience significant volatility in the short term. Early investors may choose ETF products with lower management fees, and the market may experience some selling pressure.
After the official launch of the Ethereum ETF, more investors and funds may enter the Ethereum ecosystem, which will drive the long-term price increase of Ethereum.
Projects in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as ido, ssv, and ens, may benefit from the rise in Ethereum prices. Additionally, the gradual repayment of creditors by Mt. Gox remains one of the sources of market pressure.
As creditors receive payments one after another, there may be some selling behavior, which will bring more volatility to Bitcoin. This is consistent with Coinbase's report, which suggests that before the end of the third quarter of 2024, the short-term top of Bitcoin may be around $73000. The price of Bitcoin may fluctuate within a certain range. The market may start to recover at the end of September or early October.
Additionally, this week, ALT, WLD, YGG, and others will experience a one-time large-scale token unlock, with a total release value exceeding $100 million, among which ALT will unlock 684 million tokens at 18:00 on July 25th, worth approximately $110 million, accounting for 42.08% of the circulation. WLD will unlock 5.32 million tokens at 8:00 on July 24th, worth approximately $14.04 million, accounting for 1.88% of the circulation. YGG will unlock 14.08 million tokens at 22:00 on July 27th, worth approximately $7.51 million, accounting for 3.74% of the circulation. ENA will unlock 14.89 million tokens at 16:00 on July 28th, worth approximately $7.48 million, accounting for 0.87% of the circulation. The large-scale unlocking of tokens for these projects may affect their short-term price trends.
According to relevant data, based on the current mainstream CEX contract positions, if Bitcoin rises and breaks through $70,000, an estimated $1.522 billion in short positions will be liquidated. If Bitcoin falls to around $64,000, an estimated $1.382 billion in long positions will be liquidated. This means that when a large number of short or long positions are liquidated, the price of Bitcoin may experience significant fluctuations.
Yesterday, there were liquidations totaling $166 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $101 million and short positions liquidated at $64.4 million, another round of long and short liquidation in the market.
Next, Ripple's CEO expects the company to soon resolve its years-long lawsuit with the SEC. In recent weeks, the price of XRP has risen, as it is speculated that after the closed-door meeting held by the SEC next week, XRP will announce a settlement. This is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market, indicating that other projects sued by the SEC also have the possibility of reaching a settlement.
Overall, the U.S. presidential election has become a direct catalyst for this round of the bull market. Next, we can pay attention to how much new capital will enter the market after the launch of the Ethereum ETF, as well as Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference. Some media reports suggest that Trump may announce that Bitcoin will be used as a strategic reserve asset for the United States, similar to the large amount of gold reserves the U.S. holds, which will be more important than institutional buying, as it will make Bitcoin a resource of national-level competition.
By the way, our great Hong Kong will launch the first Asia's Bitcoin futures inverse product on July 23rd - Southern Dongying Bitcoin Futures Daily (-1x) Inverse Product (7376.HK). The new exchange-traded fund (ETF) launched by Southern Dongying Asset Management, one of China's largest asset management companies, aims to provide investors with a way to profit from the decline in Bitcoin prices.
Previously, Southern Dongying Bitcoin Futures ETF (3066.HK) was successfully launched in December 2022, continuing the company's expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
Since the launch of the Southern Dongying Bitcoin Futures ETF and Ethereum Futures ETF, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been trading spot cryptocurrency ETFs since the end of 2022.
Both products track BTC futures and ETH cash-settled futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and Samsung Asset Management Hong Kong launched the Bitcoin Futures ETF in January 2023. As of April 29th, the cryptocurrency ETFs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accumulated managed assets of HK$1.3 billion, worth US$170 million, among these three futures products.
On July 5th, the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) issued a warning, stating that seven cryptocurrency exchanges in the region are operating illegally.
The Securities and Futures Commission has marked these exchanges that provide intermediary services without obtaining a license and included them in the "suspicious virtual asset trading platform" warning list.
The commission aims to reduce the risk of fraud and scams by managing public records of registered, unregistered, and illegal crypto trading entities.
Personal opinion, for reference only
Public account ↓↓↓
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
