Vice President Harris is a hot favorite, followed by California Governor Newsom, Michigan Governor Whitmer, and Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro.
By: Huang Yu
Source: Wall Street News
US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the election on Sunday. Who will take over the Democratic Party and compete with Trump?
Vice President Harris (Kamala Harris) is a hot favorite, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who vigorously promotes renewable energy, as well as the governors of two swing states, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.
Kamala Harris
Harris's biggest advantage is that Biden has endorsed her. Biden himself stated on social media on the 22nd that he will fully support Harris as the Democratic Party's candidate this year.
This also means that compared to other candidates, Harris is more likely to receive support, as she is essentially continuing Biden's policies. The campaign funds that originally supported Biden are highly likely to support her in the future.
Image Source: Visual China
Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at BTIG, pointed out that in terms of policy, Biden and Harris have almost no differences on major issues. Harris is essentially continuing Biden's policies, perhaps with only slight adjustments. For example, Harris is a staunch advocate for addressing climate change. She has expressed concern and emphasized the impact of climate change on the global economy and society on multiple occasions, and has proposed some strategies to address it.
She also advocates for providing a $6,000 tax credit for low- and middle-income families. More and more Democratic leaders support her, including the Clintons.
Gavin Newsom
If Harris does not receive the nomination, California Governor Gavin Newsom will be considered the best candidate. On one hand, California is the Democratic Party's stronghold, and regardless of the nominee, the Democratic Party has almost no chance of losing.
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On the other hand, Newsom's advantage lies in his experience in conducting large-scale campaign activities. He even participated in a debate in the last round of the election, debating with the then Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis in December last year.
In terms of policy, Newsom also staunchly defends Biden's economic policies. In California, he actively promotes renewable energy policies and hopes to make California completely reliant on clean energy within twenty years.
More importantly, Newsom stated last week that if Harris seeks the presidential nomination, he will not challenge her.
Gretchen Whitmer
In addition to Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also a major candidate. On one hand, this is because she has been deeply rooted in the swing state of Michigan for more than five years, and Michigan's influence on the general election is crucial.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, Whitmer defeated the Republican challenger by a 10-point margin, leading the Democratic Party to believe that as a presidential or vice-presidential nominee, Whitmer can bring support not only to Michigan but also to other "Rust Belt" states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In terms of policy, Whitmer is more moderate than some other competitors. She encourages economic development incentives for large companies such as Ford Motor Company and encourages these large companies to expand in the state. This has caused dissatisfaction among some local legislators, who believe that this money should be used for public infrastructure construction. As a candidate, she has won the support of affluent suburbs in Michigan that were alienated by Trump.
Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, like Whitmer, has the advantage of governing a swing state. Shapiro has only been governor of Pennsylvania for a year and a half, but he had already established a certain level of popularity nationwide when he served as the state's attorney general.
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As governor, Shapiro is trying to balance the transition to new energy while maintaining the balance between areas in Pennsylvania that rely on traditional fossil fuel employment. He has proposed a plan for carbon emissions, and Pennsylvania will establish its own independent carbon pricing plan, with most of the emission costs borne by traditional energy power plants to reduce consumers' electricity bills.
In theoretical confrontations with Trump, his poll numbers are much better than Biden's. A poll by BlueLabs Analytics earlier this month showed that Shapiro and Whitmer, among other candidates, have a support rate in swing states that is "about 5 percentage points" higher than Biden's. Even if Shapiro does not receive the presidential nomination, this poll data may make him a potential vice presidential candidate.
Like Newsom, Shapiro also expressed support for Harris on Sunday, stating in a declaration that standing behind the vice president is "the best path forward for the Democratic Party."
Therefore, from the statements of these individuals, it is likely that if Harris continues to run, Whitmer, Newsom, and Shapiro will all likely make way for her.
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