Compiled by: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Edited by: Marco, ChainCatcher
Last week, the momentum of the US Bitcoin ETF remained strong, while the inflow of funds into the Hong Kong crypto ETF slowed down. The issuer of Ethereum submitted the final S-1 document, and the fees for various Ethereum spot ETFs have been announced. It is basically confirmed that the Ethereum spot ETF will be launched on Wednesday, July 23.
Performance of Crypto Spot ETFs Last Week
Continuous Net Inflow of US Bitcoin Spot ETF
Last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a continuous net inflow for 10 days, with a total inflow of $1.197 billion. The US Bitcoin spot ETF holds over 900,000 bitcoins, accounting for 4.3% of the total bitcoin supply.
The ETF with the highest net inflow last week was the Belad ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $706 million and net assets of $21.97 billion; followed by the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $243 million and net assets of $12.14 billion. Only the Grayscale ETF GBTC experienced a net outflow of $56.1 million, an increase from the previous week.
The net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF reached $17 billion for the first time since the beginning of the year, which is the net amount unlocked by GBTC and is independent of price appreciation, only growing through net demand and adoption.
(Note: ARKB did not update the inflow/outflow data on July 19, which may affect the overall data)
Source: Farside Investors
Net Inflow of Hong Kong Crypto Spot ETF Slows Down
Last week, the overall net inflow of the Hong Kong crypto spot ETF slowed down compared to the previous week. The total amount of Bitcoin held by the Hong Kong ETF increased by 230 coins, and the total net asset value increased by $19.33 million. The net inflow gradually decreased from Tuesday and turned into a net outflow of 44.97 BTC by Friday. The changes in the amount of Bitcoin held by each issuer were relatively small, possibly due to the market experiencing a large amount of purchases in the previous week and is currently in a temporary adjustment phase.
The Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF saw an inflow of 353.4 ETH, double that of the previous week, with a total net asset value increase of $1.91 million.
Source: SoSoValue
(Note: The single-day net inflow of Bitcoin is the sum of the net inflow of Bitcoin for all Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs on a specific trading day. This indicator measures the actual inflow or outflow of BTC for Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs on a specific trading day.)
Overview of Crypto ETF Activity Last Week
On July 18, as various issuers successively submitted the S-1/A documents for the Ethereum spot ETF to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the fee information for 9 Ethereum spot ETFs has been fully disclosed.
The specific ETF fee data is as follows:
Source: Bloomberg Terminal
Bloomberg Terminal has started adding trading information for some Ethereum ETFs in preparation for next week's trading launch. These ETFs include Bitwise's ETHW, 21Shares' CETH, and Fidelity's FETH, among others, which are also being gradually added.
According to the Cboe website, 5 Ethereum spot ETFs from VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will start trading on July 23. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal also reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has notified asset management companies that the US spot Ethereum ETF is expected to be launched on July 23.
Market reports indicate that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated in an interview that the possibility of allowing Ethereum ETFs to be pledged may need to be re-evaluated. Hester Peirce said, "I think features like staking, or any other feature of a product… these are always worth reconsidering."
New Crypto ETFs
Direxion launched two ETFs, LMBO and REKT, tracking the performance of US stocks in the crypto sector on July 18.
21Shares launched the Injective Equity Staking ETP product AINJ on July 19.
Opinions and Analysis on Crypto ETFs
Binance CEO: Initial Impact of Ethereum Spot ETF Will Not Be Significant, But Will Gain Stable Capital Allocation
According to a report by Cointelegraph, Binance CEO Richard Teng stated in a recent interview, "Although we expect these ETFs to gain stable capital allocation, the initial impact will not be significant and will fluctuate based on various macroeconomic factors."
Tom Dunleavy, a partner at MV Global, stated that the Ethereum spot ETF may see an inflow of $5 billion to $10 billion in the first few months after its launch.
Glassnode: Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETF on BTC Price is 4-8 Times that of Miners
Glassnode analyzed the largest several Bitcoin investment entities and concluded that while miners have been the main source of selling pressure, centralized exchanges and US Bitcoin spot ETFs now have the greatest impact on BTC price trends. As of July 2024, exchanges still hold over 3 million bitcoins, while ETF-managed assets amount to 887,000 bitcoins. In comparison, known miner-related wallets hold about 705,000 BTC. Currently, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has become the second largest Bitcoin pool.
Glassnode data shows that miner balances fluctuate by about 500 BTC per week, which is only a small part of the changes in exchange and ETF balances. "Historically, miners have been the main source of selling pressure, but with each halving event, their supply correlation does decrease," and currently, exchange and ETF balances may change by about 4,000 BTC per week. Glassnode stated, "This indicates that the market influence of these entities may be 4 to 8 times greater than that of miners. The Bitcoin market absorbed 48,000 BTC last month. The complete exhaustion of selling pressure from the German government provided ample relief to the market, while the initial signs of new demand stimulated positive price trends."
Bitwise CIO: Inflow of Funds into Ethereum ETF Will Drive ETH to Break $5,000 and Reach a New All-Time High
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the impact of spot ETF inflows on ETH may be greater than that on Bitcoin. He expects the price of ETH to be "volatile" in the first few weeks after the launch of the Ethereum ETF, as funds may flow out of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), valued at $11 billion, into the spot ETF. However, by the end of the year, he believes that the price of ETH will surpass $5,000 and reach a new all-time high. If the inflow is stronger than many market commentators expect, the price could be even higher.
Bloomberg Analyst: Ethereum Spot ETF Will Pave the Way for More Similar Products
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the first batch of Ethereum spot ETFs is about to be launched, which will pave the way for more crypto ETFs, and it is expected that more similar products based on Ethereum and Solana will emerge.
Citi: Net Inflow Range for Ethereum Spot ETF in the First 6 Months is $4.7 Billion to $5.4 Billion
In a report, Citi stated that the inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF may only be 30% to 35% of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Based on this calculation, the net inflow range for the first 6 months of the Ethereum spot ETF is estimated to be $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion.
Viewpoint: SEC's Approval of ETH Spot ETF "Strongly Implies ETH is a Commodity, Not a Security"
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, cited an analysis report from the law firm Foley & Lardner LLP, pointing out that the most important development in the SEC's approval of the ETH spot ETF is "the SEC strongly implying that ETH is a commodity, not a security."
Furthermore, "the approval indicates that crypto assets can begin as securities and transition to commodities over time."
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