Over the past week, the market has started a strong rebound. Will this round of rebound become a reversal? Recently, US economic data has gradually weakened, and the call for interest rate cuts has been increasing. Several Federal Reserve officials have hinted at an imminent interest rate cut, but the specific timing has not been determined. The Ethereum spot ETF may allow for staking, and Bitcoin is surging, testing the key level of $65,000, with some altcoins outperforming the market. We believe that Bitcoin has already broken free from its valuation lower limit and may be adversely affected by the downward trend of US stocks in the next step.

Macro Environment

Trump's Approval Rating Rises After Assassination Attempt

Former US President Donald Trump was shot at a rally to campaign for the end-of-year presidential election, bringing him one step closer to the presidency.

Source: The Economist

In recent years, Trump has consistently supported the cryptocurrency market, vowing not to let other countries, especially China, take over the cryptocurrency market. This has raised greater expectations for a relaxed regulatory environment for the US cryptocurrency market, and the market is also waiting to see if China will further relax its regulatory policies.

US Economy Awaiting a Turnaround

The US economy is awaiting a turnaround. According to the US Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now model estimate on July 10th, the US second-quarter GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.0%. On one hand, the US economy continues to expand, with the GDP growth rate still close to the potential growth rate, especially with investment significantly driving economic growth. On the other hand, with the depletion of excess savings by US households and the suppressive effect of high interest rates on consumption, the strong driving force of consumption on the economy has clearly weakened. Overall, the US economy is awaiting a turnaround, but the signals of cooling are strengthening.

Current Market Situation and Future Trends

This week, the market has been strong due to reduced selling pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices showing a very strong trend, and the altcoin market has also strengthened. On July 23rd, the Ethereum spot ETF may be approved, providing short-term support for market sentiment, and the Bitcoin fear and greed index has turned greedy.

Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to the Nasdaq index, showing relatively strong performance. As mentioned in this publication last week, after the easing of selling pressure, there has been a rapid rise in the short term. However, before the interest rate cut, US stocks may decline, leading to a market collapse, so we need to focus on the trend of US stocks.

Source: Nasdaq official website

High-Quality Tracks

1) AI Sector

Hot Topic: WLD Postpones Unlocking Schedule

According to the Worldcoin Foundation, the WLD tokens allocated to Tools for Humanity, a contributor to Worldcoin, were originally scheduled to start unlocking linearly on July 24, 2024. However, TFH has extended the unlocking schedule for 80% of WLD held by team members and investors from 3 years to 5 years.

Reason for Rebound:

The AI sector experienced a round of overselling earlier, and with the warming sentiment of BTC and the market, the rapid rebound of WLD has continued to drive the track's recovery, leading mainstream coins like TAO and NEAR to continue to strengthen.

2) Meme Track

Hot Topic: Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Imminent

The market believes that the ETH spot ETF may be approved by the SEC on July 23, and there may be significant gains in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Specific Coin List:

Etherfi: The second season airdrop of Etherfi has started, and it will continue from July 1 to September 14, distributing 25 million ETHFI.

PEPE: Currently the hottest Meme coin in the ETH ecosystem, with a very strong community base, worth continued attention as a major beta of ETH.

User Focus

1) Popular Tokens on Twitter

• $VANCE

Vance was once a fierce critic of Trump, but later switched to supporting the Republican leader. He officially accepted the nomination for vice president at the 2024 Republican National Convention and pledged allegiance to Trump. He was originally known for his book "Hillbilly Elegy," which was later adapted into a movie. The book describes his experiences growing up in a poor rural area and his views on American society and economic issues.

In addition, Vance is also considered a politician who supports cryptocurrencies. Although he did not disclose any purchases or sales of cryptocurrencies in his recent financial disclosures, in 2022, he disclosed holding Bitcoin worth between $100,000 and $250,000.

• $ETHFI

The ether.fi foundation announced that it has written a description of current and future features aimed at enhancing the utility, market dynamics, and user participation of the ETHFI token. In addition, the ether.fi foundation announced that the Season 2 ETHFI claim has gone live on X.

Ether.Fi allows participants to stake while retaining control of their private keys. Deposits from users will be re-staked locally, using Eigenlayer to support external systems (such as Rollups and oracles), thereby increasing the returns for ETH stakers.

2) Popular DApps

Meet48

Meet48 Metaverse is a unique virtual idol creation platform that integrates AI data models, dance choreography, idol song generation, and personalized virtual idol characters. Users can create UGC content using AI tools and export it to the platform to receive rewards. In addition, MEET48 is also a social metaverse driven by Web3 and AI technology, containing music, songs, and dance elements. Here, users can interact with idols in real life, meet like-minded friends, create their own avatars, and cultivate them into prominent superstars.

Conclusion

Over the past week, the market has seen a strong rebound, especially with significant upward trends in Bitcoin and Ethereum. With the cooling of US economic data and the increasing calls for interest rate cuts, the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy have become stronger. The potential approval of the Ethereum spot ETF and the introduction of staking features have further ignited market enthusiasm, and Bitcoin has broken through key levels, with some altcoins outperforming the market. However, the future market still needs to pay attention to the trend of US stocks and their potential impact. In this macro environment, the hot events in the AI and Meme tracks are worth close attention from investors.

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